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Estoril vs Famalicão 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 1)
Estoril1–1
FamalicãoOn these chances Estoril would usually take 1.6 points and Famalicão 1.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Famalicão.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Estoril vs Famalicão stats: how the match was played
Liga Portugal
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Estoril
Famalicão
3
Shots on target
3
1
Big chances
3
7
Corners
6
1
Yellow cards
2
50%
Possession
50%
Estoril vs Famalicão — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Portugal
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Famalicão to win
WrongOur track record
In 2,111 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,183 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Estoril 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,458 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).
Our model’s pick
Famalicão 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.1% of the time (bookmakers said 63.8%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Estoril vs Famalicão 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Estoril vs Famalicão. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Estoril1
Famalicão1Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Estoril1Famalicão1Winner
12 73%
BTTS*
Yes 54%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 27% | 73% | 51% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 86% | 14% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31% | 69% | 64% | 36% |
| 30% | 70% | 64% | 36% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
| 86% | 14% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
22%
2-2
19%
X-X
18%
X-1
13%
X-2
13%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
1-2
3%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
12.7%
0-1
9.3%
1-0
9.3%
1-2
8.3%
0-0
8.1%
2-1
8.1%
0-2
6.3%
2-0
5.9%
2-2
5.4%
1-3
3.5%
3-1
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score