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Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Fair result
Estrela AmadoraEstrela Amadora

2–1

Sporting BragaSporting Braga
0.9Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Estrela Amadora would usually take 1.3 points and Sporting Braga 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Sporting Braga.

Estrela Amadora +1.7 pts vs chancesSporting Braga −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Estrela Amadora

Sporting Braga

5

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

1

5

Corners

9

2

Yellow cards

1

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Estrela Amadora and Sporting Braga ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Sporting Braga win at 52% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sporting Braga – Gil Vicente prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting Braga to win

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 76%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Sporting Braga ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Estrela Amadora Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estrela Amadora 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 78%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Sporting Braga Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting Braga 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Sporting Braga 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 42.6% than to our 50–55%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Estrela Amadora vs Sporting Braga. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Portugal - Portugal
Estrela AmadoraEstrela Amadora2
Sporting BragaSporting Braga1

Winner

2 52%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

0-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

123%
X26%
252%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Estrela Amadora45%55%78%22%
Sporting Braga23%77%55%45%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Estrela Amadora94%6%99%1%
Sporting Braga79%21%92%8%

1st Half

116%
X44%
241%

1st Score

129%
X9%
262%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

35%

X-2

20%

X-X

17%

1-1

8%

X-1

7%

1-X

4%

1-2

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-1

12.6%

1-1

11.8%

0-2

9.7%

1-2

9.3%

0-0

9.0%

1-0

7.7%

2-1

5.3%

0-3

5.3%

1-3

4.5%

2-2

4.2%

2-0

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sporting Braga – Gil Vicente prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

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