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Alverca vs Santa Clara 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 4)

Robbed

Santa Clara drew despite more chances

AlvercaAlverca

1–1

Santa ClaraSanta Clara
0.4Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Alverca would usually take 0.6 points and Santa Clara 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Alverca.

Alverca +0.4 pts vs chancesSanta Clara −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Alverca vs Santa Clara stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Santa Clara had more than twice the shots on target

Alverca

Santa Clara

1

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

2

10

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Alverca and Santa Clara ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Alverca win at 38% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santa Clara – Benfica prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

Alverca vs Santa Clara — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alverca to win

Wrong
Our model 38%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,116 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.6% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Alverca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Alverca 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Santa Clara Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Santa Clara 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Alverca vs Santa Clara 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Alverca vs Santa Clara. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Portugal - Portugal
AlvercaAlverca1
Santa ClaraSanta Clara1

Winner

1X 70%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

138%
X32%
230%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT37%63%64%36%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Alverca33%67%69%31%
Santa Clara39%61%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Alverca90%10%97%3%
Santa Clara92%8%98%2%

1st Half

125%
X52%
223%

1st Score

144%
X13%
243%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

25%

1-1

18%

2-2

16%

X-1

15%

X-2

12%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

14.0%

1-0

13.4%

0-0

12.8%

0-1

11.0%

2-1

7.7%

2-0

7.5%

1-2

6.6%

0-2

5.3%

2-2

4.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santa Clara – Benfica prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

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