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Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora

Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 6)

Fair result

Rio Ave

3–3

Estrela Amadora

1.8Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Rio Ave would usually take 1.4 points and Estrela Amadora 1.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Estrela Amadora.

Rio Ave −0.4 pts vs chancesEstrela Amadora −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Rio Ave

Estrela Amadora

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

39%

Possession

61%

The match between Rio Ave and Estrela Amadora ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted an Estrela Amadora win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estrela Amadora to win

Wrong

Our model 44%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

Our model 50%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 75%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Rio Ave Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rio Ave 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 71%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,588 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Estrela Amadora Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estrela Amadora 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rio Ave vs Estrela Amadora. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Rio Ave3

Estrela Amadora3

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Rio Ave3

Estrela Amadora3

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 65%

Full Time

129%

X27%

244%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%	65%	35%	87%	13%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	29%	71%	54%	46%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	65%	35%	87%	13%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	38%	62%	71%	29%	91%	9%	97%	3%
	26%	74%	59%	41%	83%	17%	94%	6%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	38%	62%	71%	29%
	26%	74%	59%	41%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	91%	9%	97%	3%
	83%	17%	94%	6%

1st Half

124%

X47%

229%

1st Score

145%

X9%

246%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

21%

X-X

20%

1-1

17%

X-1

13%

X-2

13%

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

0-1

11.3%

1-2

8.9%

0-0

8.8%

1-0

8.6%

0-2

8.1%

2-1

6.8%

2-2

5.2%

2-0

4.9%

0-3

4.0%

1-3

3.9%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score