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Sporting CP vs Arouca

Sporting CP vs Arouca 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Portugal - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Robbed

Arouca drew despite more chances

Sporting CP

2–2

Arouca

1.1Chances (xG)2.3

On these chances Sporting CP would usually take 0.7 points and Arouca 2.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Sporting CP.

Sporting CP +0.3 pts vs chancesArouca −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Sporting CP vs Arouca stats: how the match was played

Liga Portugal

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Arouca had clearly more shots on target

Sporting CP

Arouca

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

55%

Possession

45%

The match between Sporting CP and Arouca ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted a Sporting CP win at 74% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 2.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Casa Pia – Sporting CP prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Sporting CP vs Arouca — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Portugal

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting CP to win

Wrong

Our model 74%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 59%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 63%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting CP ahead at half-time

Correct

Our model 57%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 302 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.6% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).

Sporting CP Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sporting CP 2+ goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Arouca Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Arouca 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 88%Bookmakers 88%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Sporting CP vs Arouca 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Sporting CP vs Arouca. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Sporting CP2

Arouca2

Winner

1 74%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

2-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

· FT

Liga Portugal - Portugal

Sporting CP2

Arouca2

Winner

1 74%

BTTS*

No 56%

Correct Score

2-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

174%

X17%

28%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	19%	81%	41%	59%	53%	47%	73%	27%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	19%	81%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	53%	47%	73%	27%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	10%	90%	32%	68%	57%	43%	77%	23%
	62%	38%	88%	12%	97%	3%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	10%	90%	32%	68%
	62%	38%	88%	12%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	57%	43%	77%	23%
	97%	3%	99%	1%

1st Half

157%

X34%

29%

1st Score

178%

X5%

217%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

55%

X-1

21%

X-X

10%

2-2

1-X

X-2

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

12.9%

1-0

10.9%

3-0

10.5%

2-1

8.8%

1-1

7.6%

3-1

6.3%

0-0

5.2%

2-2

3.5%

0-1

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Sporting CP vs Arouca — Recent Form

Sporting CP have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3rd in the table. Arouca have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Sporting CP

Arouca

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Sporting CP

3/5

Arouca

2/5

Both Teams to Score

Sporting CP

2/5

Arouca

2/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Sporting CP

2/5

Arouca

3/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Sporting CP

2/5

Arouca

4/5

First Half Result

Sporting CP

4/5

Arouca

3/5

Correct Score

Sporting CP

0/5

Arouca

0/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Casa Pia – Sporting CP prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).