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Saint-Étienne vs Valenciennes 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result
Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne

2–0

ValenciennesValenciennes
1.1Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Saint-Étienne would usually take 1.7 points and Valenciennes 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Saint-Étienne.

Saint-Étienne +1.3 pts vs chancesValenciennes −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Saint-Étienne vs Valenciennes stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Saint-Étienne had more than twice the shots on target

Saint-Étienne

Valenciennes

5

Shots on target

2

0

Big chances

1

6

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

3

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Saint-Étienne and Valenciennes ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Saint-Étienne win with 61% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guingamp – Saint-Étienne prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Saint-Étienne vs Valenciennes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne to win

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 1,068 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 66.6% of the time (bookmakers said 66.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,711 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,302 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 63%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,408 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Saint-Étienne Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Valenciennes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Valenciennes 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 2,563 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Saint-Étienne vs Valenciennes 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Saint-Étienne vs Valenciennes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne2
ValenciennesValenciennes0

Winner

1 61%

BTTS*

Yes 55%

Correct Score

2-0 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 57%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

161%
X21%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%43%57%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Saint-Étienne14%86%40%60%
Valenciennes47%54%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Saint-Étienne0%0%0%0%
Valenciennes0%0%0%0%

1st Half

146%
X41%
213%

1st Score

168%
X5%
227%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

40%

X-1

22%

X-X

13%

2-2

6%

X-2

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

2-0

10.4%

2-1

10.2%

1-0

10.2%

1-1

9.6%

3-1

6.8%

3-0

6.2%

2-2

4.8%

0-0

4.8%

1-2

4.7%

0-1

4.5%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Guingamp – Saint-Étienne prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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