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Metz vs Bastia

Metz vs Bastia 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result

Metz

3–2

Bastia

1.4Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Metz would usually take 1.5 points and Bastia 1.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Metz.

Metz +1.5 pts vs chancesBastia −1.2 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Metz vs Bastia stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Metz had clearly more shots on target

Metz

Bastia

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Metz and Bastia ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Metz win with 52% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Metz – Pau prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Metz vs Bastia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Metz to win

Correct

Our model 52%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 2,473 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.5% of the time (bookmakers said 55.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 61%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.2% than to our 60–65%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 80%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,701 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.7% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Metz ahead at half-time.

Our model 45%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 546 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.

Metz Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Metz 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Metz 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 1,017 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Bastia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bastia 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 81%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 1,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Metz vs Bastia 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Metz vs Bastia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Ligue 2 - France

Metz3

Bastia2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

· FT

Ligue 2 - France

Metz3

Bastia2

Winner

1 52%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

152%

X27%

221%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	34%	66%	61%	39%	70%	30%	90%	10%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	34%	66%	61%	39%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	70%	30%	90%	10%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	47%	53%	81%	19%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	47%	53%	81%	19%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

139%

X45%

216%

1st Score

158%

X11%

231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

19%

X-X

18%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.9%

1-1

12.3%

0-0

10.8%

2-0

10.6%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.3%

1-2

5.1%

3-0

4.7%

3-1

4.4%

2-2

3.8%

0-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Metz – Pau prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).