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Niort vs Quevilly Rouen 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Robbed

Quevilly Rouen drew despite more chances

NiortNiort

3–3

Quevilly RouenQuevilly Rouen
0.8Chances (xG)1.7

On these chances Niort would usually take 0.7 points and Quevilly Rouen 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Quevilly Rouen.

Niort +0.3 pts vs chancesQuevilly Rouen −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Niort vs Quevilly Rouen stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Quevilly Rouen had more than twice the shots on target

Niort

Quevilly Rouen

4

Shots on target

8

0

Big chances

2

5

Corners

2

0

Yellow cards

1

45%

Possession

55%

The match between Niort and Quevilly Rouen ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted an Quevilly Rouen win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.

Niort vs Quevilly Rouen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Quevilly Rouen to win

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 3,603 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 5,149 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 71%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 4,544 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Quevilly Rouen ahead at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,267 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Niort Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Niort 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,663 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Quevilly Rouen Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Quevilly Rouen 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Quevilly Rouen 2+ goals.

Our model 57%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 647 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Niort vs Quevilly Rouen 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Niort vs Quevilly Rouen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
NiortNiort3
Quevilly RouenQuevilly Rouen3

Winner

X2 68%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

132%
X25%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT25%75%49%51%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT60%40%84%17%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Niort34%66%67%33%
Quevilly Rouen26%74%57%43%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Niort0%0%0%0%
Quevilly Rouen0%0%0%0%

1st Half

123%
X43%
234%

1st Score

141%
X7%
253%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

X-X

17%

X-2

15%

1-1

14%

X-1

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

0-1

9.8%

1-2

8.8%

1-0

8.1%

0-2

7.5%

2-1

7.2%

0-0

6.6%

2-2

5.5%

2-0

5.0%

1-3

4.7%

0-3

3.5%

3-1

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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