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Pau vs Caen 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2022/2023 (Round 38)

Fair result
PauPau

1–0

CaenCaen
1.6Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Pau would usually take 2.1 points and Caen 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Pau.

Pau +0.9 pts vs chancesCaen −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Pau vs Caen stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Pau had more than twice the shots on target

Pau

Caen

6

Shots on target

1

3

Big chances

0

4

Corners

6

1

Yellow cards

2

1

Red cards

0

36%

Possession

64%

The match between Pau and Caen ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Caen win at 44% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Metz – Pau prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

Pau vs Caen — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Caen to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Pau to win.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 30%

Our track record

In 1,067 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 30.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 30.2% than to our 40–45%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 6,479 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,851 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 70%

Our track record

In 4,544 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 43%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 6,634 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

Pau Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Pau 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 70%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 1,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.6% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Caen Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Caen 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,590 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.5% of the time (bookmakers said 60.8%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Pau vs Caen 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Pau vs Caen. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
PauPau1
CaenCaen0

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

129%
X27%
244%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Pau36%64%70%30%
Caen26%74%58%42%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Pau0%0%0%0%
Caen0%0%0%0%

1st Half

121%
X43%
236%

1st Score

135%
X8%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

28%

X-X

17%

X-2

16%

1-1

13%

X-1

10%

2-X

6%

1-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.4%

0-1

10.6%

1-2

9.0%

1-0

8.4%

0-2

8.0%

0-0

7.7%

2-1

7.1%

2-2

5.0%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.3%

0-3

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Metz – Pau prediction & betting tips (Oct 30, 2026).

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