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Guingamp vs Boulogne 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
GuingampGuingamp

1–0

BoulogneBoulogne
1.5Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Guingamp would usually take 1.8 points and Boulogne 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Guingamp.

Guingamp +1.2 pts vs chancesBoulogne −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Guingamp vs Boulogne stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Guingamp had clearly more shots on target

Guingamp

Boulogne

3

Shots on target

2

4

Big chances

0

3

Corners

4

1

Yellow cards

2

58%

Possession

42%

The match between Guingamp and Boulogne ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Guingamp win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Clermont – Guingamp prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Guingamp vs Boulogne — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guingamp to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 3,626 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.0% of the time (bookmakers said 46.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: No, not both.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Guingamp Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Guingamp 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Boulogne Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boulogne 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Guingamp vs Boulogne 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Guingamp vs Boulogne. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
GuingampGuingamp1
BoulogneBoulogne0

Winner

1X 68%

BTTS*

Yes 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

140%
X28%
232%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Guingamp28%72%62%38%
Boulogne35%65%68%32%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Guingamp85%15%95%5%
Boulogne88%12%96%4%

1st Half

130%
X50%
220%

1st Score

152%
X9%
240%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

X-X

21%

X-1

17%

2-2

14%

X-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.6%

1-0

10.8%

0-1

8.7%

0-0

8.7%

2-1

8.3%

1-2

7.5%

2-0

7.0%

2-2

5.2%

0-2

5.0%

3-1

3.8%

3-0

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Clermont – Guingamp prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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