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Boulogne vs Red Star 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 3)

Robbed

Boulogne drew despite more chances

BoulogneBoulogne

1–1

Red StarRed Star
2.1Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Boulogne would usually take 2.3 points and Red Star 0.5; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Red Star.

Boulogne −1.3 pts vs chancesRed Star +0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Boulogne vs Red Star stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Boulogne had more than twice the shots on target

Boulogne

Red Star

10

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

2

3

Corners

3

4

Yellow cards

4

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Boulogne and Red Star ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted an Red Star win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Montpellier – Red Star prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Boulogne vs Red Star — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Red Star to win

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Boulogne Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boulogne 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 842 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).

Red Star Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Red Star 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 53%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,014 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Boulogne vs Red Star 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boulogne vs Red Star. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
BoulogneBoulogne1
Red StarRed Star1

Winner

2 53%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

0-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

122%
X25%
253%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT28%72%53%47%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Boulogne45%55%77%23%
Red Star22%78%53%47%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Boulogne93%7%98%2%
Red Star78%22%91%9%

1st Half

119%
X45%
236%

1st Score

134%
X9%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

31%

X-X

18%

X-2

17%

1-1

12%

X-1

9%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

12.4%

1-1

11.4%

0-2

9.8%

1-2

9.1%

0-0

8.9%

1-0

7.0%

2-1

5.4%

0-3

5.2%

1-3

5.0%

2-2

4.4%

2-0

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Montpellier – Red Star prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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