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Metz vs Saint-Étienne 2-2 Score & Prediction Review

Ligue 2 - Season 2026/2027 (Round 7)

Fair result
MetzMetz

2–2

Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne
1.0Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Metz would usually take 1.1 points and Saint-Étienne 1.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Saint-Étienne.

Metz −0.1 pts vs chancesSaint-Étienne −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Metz vs Saint-Étienne stats: how the match was played

Ligue 2

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Saint-Étienne had more than twice the shots on target

Metz

Saint-Étienne

3

Shots on target

6

3

Big chances

3

3

Corners

6

2

Yellow cards

4

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Metz and Saint-Étienne ended 2-2. Our AI model predicted an Saint-Étienne win at 39% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dunkerque – Metz prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Metz vs Saint-Étienne — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Ligue 2

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne to win

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,096 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 2,377 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.7% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,650 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Metz Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Metz 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,465 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Saint-Étienne Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Saint-Étienne 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Saint-Étienne 2+ goals.

Our model 56%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 636 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.3% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Metz vs Saint-Étienne 2-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Metz vs Saint-Étienne. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Ligue 2 - France
MetzMetz2
Saint-ÉtienneSaint-Étienne2

Winner

12 74%

BTTS*

Yes 62%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 53%

Full Time

135%
X26%
239%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%41%59%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT53%47%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Metz28%72%59%41%
Saint-Étienne25%75%56%44%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Metz82%18%94%6%
Saint-Étienne80%20%93%7%

1st Half

129%
X42%
228%

1st Score

150%
X5%
244%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

21%

2-2

20%

X-X

16%

X-1

13%

X-2

12%

1-X

7%

2-X

6%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

11.8%

1-2

8.5%

2-1

8.1%

0-1

7.2%

1-0

6.9%

2-2

6.8%

0-2

5.3%

0-0

5.2%

2-0

4.8%

1-3

4.3%

3-1

3.9%

2-3

3.4%

3-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dunkerque – Metz prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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