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New York City vs CF Montréal 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
New York City1–1
CF MontréalOn these chances New York City would usually take 1.6 points and CF Montréal 1.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: New York City.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →New York City vs CF Montréal stats: how the match was played
Major League Soccer
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
New York City had more than twice the shots on target
New York City
CF Montréal
4
Shots on target
2
2
Big chances
1
3
Corners
4
3
Yellow cards
5
53%
Possession
47%
New York City vs CF Montréal — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
New York City to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,806 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 5,756 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
WrongOur track record
In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,424 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Our model’s pick
New York City ahead at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 6,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
Our model’s pick
New York City 2+ goals
WrongOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.0% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
CF Montréal 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
New York City vs CF Montréal 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for New York City vs CF Montréal. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
New York City1
CF Montréal1Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
New York City1CF Montréal1Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
Yes 57%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 54%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 19% | 81% | 41% | 59% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 54% | 46% | 78% | 22% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 44% | 56% |
| 41% | 59% | 72% | 28% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
| 90% | 10% | 97% | 3% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
36%
X-1
17%
X-X
13%
2-2
10%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
2-1
10.1%
1-0
9.2%
2-0
8.4%
1-2
6.0%
3-1
6.0%
3-0
5.7%
2-2
5.6%
0-1
5.2%
0-0
5.0%
3-2
3.5%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
New York City vs CF Montréal — Recent Form
New York City have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 11th in the table. CF Montréal have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 15th in the table.
Last 5 matches
New York CityCF MontréalOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
CF MontréalNew York CityBoth Teams to Score
CF MontréalNew York CityOver/Under 2.5 Goals
CF MontréalNew York CityOver/Under 3.5 Goals
CF MontréalNew York CityFirst Half Result
CF MontréalNew York CityCorrect Score
CF MontréalNew York City