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Portland Timbers vs San Diego 3-1 Score & Prediction Review
Major League Soccer - Season 2026
Portland Timbers3–1
San DiegoOn these chances Portland Timbers would usually take 1.1 points and San Diego 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Portland Timbers.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Portland Timbers vs San Diego stats: how the match was played
Major League Soccer
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Portland Timbers
San Diego
5
Shots on target
6
3
Big chances
1
0
Corners
7
2
Yellow cards
1
30%
Possession
70%
Portland Timbers vs San Diego — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Major League Soccer
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Portland Timbers to win
CorrectOur track record
In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
CorrectOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 3.5 goals.
Our track record
In 257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.1% than to our 55–60%.
Our model’s pick
Portland Timbers ahead at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Portland Timbers 2+ goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
San Diego 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,280 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Portland Timbers vs San Diego 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Portland Timbers vs San Diego. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Portland Timbers3
San Diego1Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Portland Timbers3San Diego1Winner
1 54%
BTTS*
Yes 61%
Correct Score
1-1 10%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
over 50%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 17% | 83% | 38% | 62% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 50% | 50% | 75% | 25% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17% | 83% | 44% | 56% |
| 38% | 62% | 69% | 31% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70% | 30% | 87% | 13% |
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
16%
X-X
12%
2-2
12%
X-2
7%
1-X
6%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
3%
Correct Score
1-1
10.1%
2-1
10.0%
1-0
8.0%
2-0
7.4%
3-1
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
6.1%
3-0
4.9%
0-1
4.8%
0-0
4.4%
3-2
4.2%
0-2
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score