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Zenit vs Fakel

Zenit vs Fakel 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2022/2023 (Round 30)

Fair result

Zenit

1–0

Fakel

0.9Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances Zenit would usually take 1.8 points and Fakel 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Zenit.

Zenit +1.2 pts vs chancesFakel −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Zenit vs Fakel stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Zenit had more than twice the shots on target

Zenit

Fakel

Shots on target

Big chances

Yellow cards

75%

Possession

25%

The match between Zenit and Fakel ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Zenit win with 81% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rubin Kazan – Fakel prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Zenit vs Fakel — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Zenit to win

Correct

Our model 81%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 66 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 84.8% of the time (bookmakers said 82.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 536 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 45.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.7% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 804 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 55–60%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 60%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 2,403 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.6% of the time (bookmakers said 62.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Zenit ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 67%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Zenit Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Zenit 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Zenit 0–1 goals.

Our model 72%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

Too few similar matches in the last 12 months for a track record.

Fakel Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fakel 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 92%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 126 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 90–95% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.7% of the time (bookmakers said 88.5%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Zenit vs Fakel 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Zenit vs Fakel. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Zenit1

Fakel0

Winner

1 81%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

2-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Zenit1

Fakel0

Winner

1 81%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

2-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 59%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 50%

Full Time

181%

X13%

26%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	18%	82%	41%	59%	50%	50%	69%	31%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	18%	82%	41%	59%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	50%	50%	69%	31%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	8%	92%	28%	72%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	68%	32%	92%	8%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	8%	92%	28%	72%
	68%	32%	92%	8%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

167%

X26%

27%

1st Score

180%

X5%

215%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

63%

X-1

19%

X-X

1-X

2-1

X-2

2-X

2-2

1-2

Correct Score

2-0

13.3%

1-0

11.4%

3-0

11.2%

2-1

8.1%

3-1

7.0%

1-1

6.0%

0-0

4.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rubin Kazan – Fakel prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).