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Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva

Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2022/2023 (Round 30)

Smash-and-grab

Krylya Sovetov won with fewer chances than Spartak Moskva

Krylya Sovetov

1–0

Spartak Moskva

1.0Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Krylya Sovetov would usually take 0.8 points and Spartak Moskva 2.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Spartak Moskva.

Krylya Sovetov +2.2 pts vs chancesSpartak Moskva −2.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Krylya Sovetov

Spartak Moskva

Shots on target

Big chances

Yellow cards

Red cards

29%

Possession

72%

The match between Krylya Sovetov and Spartak Moskva ended 1-0. Our AI model predicted an Spartak Moskva win at 46% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lokomotiv Moskva – Spartak Moskva prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva to win

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 39%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.5% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 5,707 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 53%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 5,147 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.1% of the time (bookmakers said 56.5%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,964 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 66.7%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Draw at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 32%

Our track record

In 1,203 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.6% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 35.0% than to our 35–40%.

Krylya Sovetov Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Krylya Sovetov 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 2,666 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Spartak Moskva Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Spartak Moskva 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,021 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.9% of the time (bookmakers said 59.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Krylya Sovetov vs Spartak Moskva. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Krylya Sovetov1

Spartak Moskva0

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Krylya Sovetov1

Spartak Moskva0

Winner

X2 71%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 53%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 60%

Full Time

129%

X25%

246%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	23%	77%	47%	53%	60%	40%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	23%	77%	47%	53%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	60%	40%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	36%	64%	69%	31%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	23%	77%	54%	46%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	36%	64%	69%	31%
	23%	77%	54%	46%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

121%

X39%

240%

1st Score

135%

X6%

259%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

31%

X-2

17%

1-1

13%

X-X

13%

X-1

2-X

1-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

11.7%

0-1

9.9%

1-2

9.0%

0-2

8.1%

1-0

7.4%

2-1

7.0%

0-0

6.1%

2-2

5.7%

1-3

4.6%

2-0

4.6%

0-3

4.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Lokomotiv Moskva – Spartak Moskva prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).