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Orenburg vs Dinamo Moskva 3-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2022/2023 (Round 30)

Fair result
OrenburgOrenburg

3–0

Dinamo MoskvaDinamo Moskva
1.6Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Orenburg would usually take 1.2 points and Dinamo Moskva 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Orenburg.

Orenburg +1.8 pts vs chancesDinamo Moskva −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Orenburg vs Dinamo Moskva stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Orenburg had more than twice the shots on target

Orenburg

Dinamo Moskva

8

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

1

0

Yellow cards

1

53%

Possession

47%

The match between Orenburg and Dinamo Moskva ended 3-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Orenburg win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dinamo Moskva – Akhmat Grozny prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Orenburg vs Dinamo Moskva — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orenburg to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 63%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 3.5 goals.

Our model 62%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 257 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 47.1% than to our 60–65%.

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Orenburg ahead at half-time.

Our model 40%Bookmakers 33%

Our track record

In 2,263 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Orenburg Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orenburg 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Orenburg 2+ goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Dinamo Moskva Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Dinamo Moskva 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Dinamo Moskva 2+ goals.

Our model 59%Bookmakers 40%

Our track record

In 648 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.4% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.6% than to our 55–60%.

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Orenburg vs Dinamo Moskva 3-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Orenburg vs Dinamo Moskva. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
OrenburgOrenburg3
Dinamo MoskvaDinamo Moskva0

Winner

1X 65%

BTTS*

Yes 63%

Correct Score

1-1 11%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 52%

Full Time

140%
X25%
235%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT19%81%40%60%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT52%48%77%23%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Orenburg25%75%55%45%
Dinamo Moskva29%71%59%41%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Orenburg0%0%0%0%
Dinamo Moskva0%0%0%0%

1st Half

132%
X40%
228%

1st Score

150%
X5%
245%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

23%

2-2

19%

X-1

14%

X-X

13%

X-2

13%

1-X

7%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

10.9%

2-1

8.4%

1-2

7.7%

1-0

7.4%

0-1

6.6%

2-2

6.5%

2-0

5.8%

0-2

5.1%

0-0

4.8%

3-1

4.3%

1-3

3.9%

3-2

3.6%

2-3

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Dinamo Moskva – Akhmat Grozny prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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