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FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Khimki 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2022/2023 (Round 30)

Fair result
FK Nizjni NovgorodFK Nizjni Novgorod

2–0

KhimkiKhimki
1.8Chances (xG)0.4

On these chances FK Nizjni Novgorod would usually take 2.4 points and Khimki 0.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: FK Nizjni Novgorod.

FK Nizjni Novgorod +0.6 pts vs chancesKhimki −0.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Khimki stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

FK Nizjni Novgorod had more than twice the shots on target

FK Nizjni Novgorod

Khimki

9

Shots on target

0

1

Big chances

0

2

Yellow cards

2

62%

Possession

38%

The match between FK Nizjni Novgorod and Khimki ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a FK Nizjni Novgorod win with 56% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Khimki — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FK Nizjni Novgorod to win

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 1,801 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 6,471 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,839 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,538 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.5%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FK Nizjni Novgorod ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 42%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).

FK Nizjni Novgorod Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

FK Nizjni Novgorod 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: FK Nizjni Novgorod 2+ goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 35%

Our track record

In 1,865 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Khimki Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Khimki 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 84%

Our track record

In 2,567 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Khimki 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for FK Nizjni Novgorod vs Khimki. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
FK Nizjni NovgorodFK Nizjni Novgorod2
KhimkiKhimki0

Winner

1 56%

BTTS*

No 50%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

156%
X24%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%16%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
FK Nizjni Novgorod20%80%50%50%
Khimki46%54%79%21%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
FK Nizjni Novgorod0%0%0%0%
Khimki0%0%0%0%

1st Half

142%
X40%
218%

1st Score

162%
X8%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

17%

X-X

13%

2-2

9%

X-2

8%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

12.6%

1-1

11.1%

2-0

10.2%

2-1

9.9%

0-0

7.7%

0-1

6.7%

3-0

5.8%

1-2

5.3%

3-1

5.1%

2-2

4.5%

0-2

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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