Ural vs Sochi 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2022/2023 (Round 30)

Fair result

Ural

1–0

Sochi

1.2Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Ural would usually take 1.2 points and Sochi 1.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Ural.

Ural +1.9 pts vs chancesSochi −1.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Ural vs Sochi stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Ural

Sochi

Shots on target

Big chances

Yellow cards

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Ural and Sochi ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Ural win with 45% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

Ural vs Sochi — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ural to win

Correct

Our model 45%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,602 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.4% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong

Our model 54%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 50%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 72%Bookmakers 69%

Our track record

In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct

Our model 47%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Ural Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Ural 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Ural 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,020 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 42.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 44.8% than to our 55–60%.

Sochi Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sochi 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 3,290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Ural vs Sochi 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Ural vs Sochi. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Ural1

Sochi0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Ural1

Sochi0

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 50%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 62%

Full Time

145%

X26%

229%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%	62%	38%	85%	15%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	26%	74%	50%	50%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	62%	38%	85%	15%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%	0%	0%	0%	0%
	35%	65%	69%	31%	0%	0%	0%	0%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	25%	75%	58%	42%
	35%	65%	69%	31%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	0%	0%	0%	0%
	0%	0%	0%	0%

1st Half

129%

X47%

224%

1st Score

152%

X7%

241%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-1

17%

X-X

17%

2-2

15%

X-2

11%

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-1

12.1%

1-0

10.8%

2-1

9.1%

0-1

8.0%

2-0

7.6%

0-0

7.1%

1-2

7.0%

2-2

5.4%

0-2

4.9%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

3.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score