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Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 8)

Fair result
Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny

3–2

MakhachkalaMakhachkala
1.3Chances (xG)0.8

On these chances Akhmat Grozny would usually take 1.7 points and Makhachkala 1.0; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Akhmat Grozny.

Akhmat Grozny +1.3 pts vs chancesMakhachkala −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Akhmat Grozny

Makhachkala

4

Shots on target

4

1

Big chances

2

3

Corners

4

6

Yellow cards

4

0

Red cards

1

52%

Possession

48%

The match between Akhmat Grozny and Makhachkala ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Akhmat Grozny win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Akhmat Grozny – Orenburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Akhmat Grozny to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 56%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,337 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 45%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Akhmat Grozny Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Akhmat Grozny 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Makhachkala Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Makhachkala 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 80%Bookmakers 74%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Akhmat Grozny vs Makhachkala. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premier League - Russia
Akhmat GroznyAkhmat Grozny3
MakhachkalaMakhachkala2

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 56%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

154%
X26%
220%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT30%70%56%44%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Akhmat Grozny22%78%54%46%
Makhachkala46%54%80%20%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Akhmat Grozny80%20%93%7%
Makhachkala95%5%99%1%

1st Half

138%
X45%
217%

1st Score

163%
X9%
228%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

20%

X-X

17%

2-2

11%

X-2

8%

1-X

5%

2-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.1%

1-1

11.8%

2-0

10.5%

2-1

9.9%

0-0

9.1%

0-1

7.2%

3-0

5.6%

1-2

5.1%

3-1

4.9%

2-2

4.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Akhmat Grozny – Orenburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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