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Orenburg vs Dynamo Makhachkala

Orenburg vs Makhachkala 4-0 Score & Prediction Review

Premier League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 10)

Fair result

Orenburg

4–0

Makhachkala

2.7Chances (xG)1.4

On these chances Orenburg would usually take 2.1 points and Makhachkala 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Orenburg.

Orenburg +0.9 pts vs chancesMakhachkala −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Orenburg vs Makhachkala stats: how the match was played

Premier League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Orenburg had more than twice the shots on target

Orenburg

Makhachkala

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

37%

Possession

63%

The match between Orenburg and Makhachkala ended 4-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Orenburg win with 53% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Both Teams To Score.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rodina Moskva – Orenburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).

Orenburg vs Makhachkala — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premier League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orenburg to win

Correct

Our model 53%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,496 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,142 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,341 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong

Our model 79%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 3,683 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,252 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Orenburg Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Orenburg 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 56%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,484 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Makhachkala Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Makhachkala 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 81%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 1,504 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Orenburg vs Makhachkala 4-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Orenburg vs Makhachkala. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Orenburg4

Makhachkala0

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

Premier League - Russia

Orenburg4

Makhachkala0

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

153%

X27%

220%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%	69%	31%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	23%	77%	56%	44%	81%	19%	94%	6%
	46%	54%	81%	19%	95%	5%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	23%	77%	56%	44%
	46%	54%	81%	19%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	81%	19%	94%	6%
	95%	5%	99%	1%

1st Half

137%

X46%

217%

1st Score

161%

X10%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-1

19%

X-X

19%

2-2

10%

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.4%

1-1

12.4%

2-0

10.3%

2-1

10.0%

0-0

9.9%

0-1

7.8%

3-0

5.1%

1-2

4.9%

3-1

4.6%

2-2

4.1%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Orenburg vs Makhachkala — Recent Form

Orenburg have won 1, drawn 3 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 8th in the table. Makhachkala have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Orenburg

Makhachkala

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Orenburg

2/5

Makhachkala

4/5

Both Teams to Score

Orenburg

4/5

Makhachkala

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Orenburg

2/5

Makhachkala

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Orenburg

3/5

Makhachkala

2/5

First Half Result

Orenburg

2/5

Makhachkala

4/5

Correct Score

Orenburg

1/5

Makhachkala

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Rodina Moskva – Orenburg prediction & betting tips (Oct 19, 2026).