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Celtic vs Motherwell 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Premiership - Season 2025/2026 (Round 30)

Fair result
CelticCeltic

3–1

MotherwellMotherwell
2.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Celtic would usually take 2.1 points and Motherwell 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Celtic.

Celtic +0.9 pts vs chancesMotherwell −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Celtic vs Motherwell stats: how the match was played

Premiership

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Celtic had more than twice the shots on target

Celtic

Motherwell

6

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

0

2

Corners

3

4

Yellow cards

2

0

Red cards

1

46%

Possession

54%

The match between Celtic and Motherwell ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Celtic win with 54% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 2.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Motherwell – Celtic prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

Celtic vs Motherwell — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Premiership

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic to win

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,449 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 5,563 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 5,212 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.6% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 2,311 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.9%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 39%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 1,988 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 40.3% of the time (bookmakers said 41.2%).

Celtic Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Celtic 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 2,751 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.3% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Motherwell Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Motherwell 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 71%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,303 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.7% of the time (bookmakers said 72.1%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Celtic vs Motherwell 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Celtic vs Motherwell. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Premiership - Scotland
CelticCeltic3
MotherwellMotherwell1

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 56%

Correct Score

1-1 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 55%

Full Time

154%
X23%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT20%80%42%58%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT55%45%78%22%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Celtic18%82%46%54%
Motherwell40%60%71%29%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Celtic73%27%88%12%
Motherwell90%10%97%3%

1st Half

139%
X38%
223%

1st Score

157%
X5%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

33%

X-1

16%

2-2

14%

X-X

13%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

3%

2-1

3%

Correct Score

1-1

10.4%

2-1

9.9%

1-0

9.6%

2-0

8.4%

1-2

6.0%

3-1

5.9%

0-1

5.5%

2-2

5.5%

0-0

5.3%

3-0

5.1%

3-2

3.4%

0-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Motherwell – Celtic prediction & betting tips (Oct 11, 2026).

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