Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 14)
Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting — Primera Division Prediction Accuracy
Season 2026 · Round 14 · Apertura
Full-Time Result →
Peñarol+6.2% Above implied probability
Defensor Sporting-11.5% Below implied probability
┊ 43.5% Implied Probability
Both Teams To Score →
Peñarol-14.6% Below implied probability
Defensor Sporting+13.7% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 54.1% Implied Probability
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →
Peñarol+0.4% Above implied probability
Defensor Sporting+57.8% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 53.6% Implied Probability
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →
Peñarol+25% Strongly above implied probability
Defensor Sporting+62.6% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 61.5% Implied Probability
First Half Result →
Peñarol-39.4% Below implied probability
Defensor Sporting+101.8% Strongly above implied probability
┊ 38.1% Implied Probability
Correct Score →
PeñarolDefensor SportingOur AI model tracks prediction accuracy for Peñarol and Defensor Sporting across 6 betting markets. The cards above compare per-team accuracy against a bookmaker-implied probability baseline for each betting market.
First Half Result predictions for Defensor Sporting hit at 77% accuracy — that's 101.8% above the bookmaker baseline of 38.1%, suggesting genuine betting value.
On the other hand, First Half Result predictions for Peñarol sit 39.4% below the bookmaker baseline — pricing is sharper here, so extra caution is warranted.
Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting — AI Betting Odds & Market Probabilities
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
| 1 | 49% | |
| X | 27% | |
| 2 | 23% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 35% | 65% | 61% | 39% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 71% | 29% | 91% | 9% |
| 1 | 37% | |
| X | 46% | |
| 2 | 17% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 5% | 19% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 12% | 5% | 9% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 2% | 19% | 2% |
| 1 | 56% | |
| X | 11% | |
| 2 | 33% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 26% | 74% | 60% | 40% |
 | 45% | 55% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
| 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 0-1 | 1-2 | 3-0 | 3-1 | 0-2 | 2-2 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% | 5.6% | 4.2% | 4.0% | 3.6% | 3.6% |
| 1 | 49% | |
| X | 27% | |
| 2 | 23% |
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 35% | 65% | 61% | 39% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
| 71% | 29% | 91% | 9% |
| 1 | 37% | |
| X | 46% | |
| 2 | 17% |
| 1-1 | 1-X | X-1 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28% | 5% | 19% | |
| 2-2 | 2-X | X-2 | |
| 12% | 5% | 9% | |
| 1-2 | X-X | 2-1 | |
| 2% | 19% | 2% |
| 1 | 56% | |
| X | 11% | |
| 2 | 33% |
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26% | 74% | 60% | 40% |
| 45% | 55% | 80% | 20% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
| 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 0-1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15.1% | 12.1% | 11.2% | 10.2% | 9.3% | 8.8% |
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Peñarol vs Defensor Sporting — Prediction Form & Streaks
Defensor Sporting have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 6th in the table. Peñarol have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 3th in the table.
Our football prediction algorithm has been reading Defensor Sporting well in the Over/Under 2.5 Goals market, landing 5 correct predictions in a row. This level of consistency suggests a strong betting opportunity worth considering.
Full-Time Result
PeñarolDefensor SportingBoth Teams To Score
PeñarolDefensor SportingOver/Under 2.5 Goals
PeñarolDefensor SportingOver/Under 3.5 Goals
PeñarolDefensor SportingFirst Half Result
PeñarolDefensor SportingCorrect Score
PeñarolDefensor SportingPeñarol & Defensor Sporting Teams in Best Form
Defensor SportingPeñarol