Shot-shy
7/10Danubio failed to score in 7 of their last 10 (league 30%).
Primera Division Predictions & Stats
Free AI predictions for every upcoming Primera Division match — 1X2, Both Teams to Score, Over/Under goals and Correct Score probabilities.
Predictions updated on 11 October 2026.
Primera Division Predictions by Market
Season 2026 · Round 10 · Clausura
Full-Time Result
47%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Both Teams To Score
42%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
58%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
78%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
First Half Result
45%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Correct Score
12%
SUCCESS RATE AVG.
Primera Division 2026 prediction accuracy over the last 100 matches: 1X2 47%, BTTS 42%, Over/Under 2.5 58%, Over/Under 3.5 78%, correct score 12%.
Primera Division stats: goals, BTTS, corners and cards vs other leagues
How this competition ranks among the leagues and cups we cover for goals, chances (xG), corners and cards.
How to read it
last 12 months · 296 matchesrank 1 = highest of 63 competitionsTight and cageyCard-heavy
Goals a match
2.37
54th of 63
xG a match
2.32
58th of 62
Corners a match
8.99
52nd of 62
Cards a match
5.97
1st of 63
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We use the league's matches from the last 12 months, without qualifying rounds, and rank it against the 63 leagues and club competitions with 50 or more matches in that time (1 = highest). A label marks a league in the top fifth on goals, home or away wins, draws, cards or corners, or in the bottom fifth on goals. xG is our estimate of each match's chances from its shots.
Primera Division: the stats that stand out
The Primera Division teams most unusual in their last 10 games.
How to read it
the teamleague averageeach team's last 10 games7/10Slow starters
1/10Central Español scored first in only 1 of 10 recent matches with goal times (league 45%).
Hard to break
1/10Liverpool conceded first in only 1 of 10 recent matches with goal times (league 45%).
Brick wall
6/10Deportivo Maldonado kept 6 clean sheets in their last 10 (league 30%).
Banker as favourites
5/6Torque won 5 of 6 as favourites (league 43%).
Goal-fests
7/10Albion games went over 2.5 goals in 7 of their last 10 (league 44%).
Goals at both ends
7/10Boston River: both teams scored in 7 of their last 10 (league 50%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each stat we show the club that stands out most, one club per stat. A fact needs at least 6 games and a result far enough from the league average to be unusual (at least one standard deviation).
How we measure →Today's Betting Tips for Primera Division Uruguay
Free predictions for today's Primera Division matches: 1X2, both teams to score, over/under and correct score.
Juventud2
Racing0Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Juventud2Racing0Winner
1X 70%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Full Time
140%
X30%
230%
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | 30% | 70% | 65% | 35% |
 | 37% | 63% | 73% | 27% |
Goals Over/Under
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 59% | 41% | 70% | 30% |
Correct Score
1-1
13.6%
1-0
12.1%
0-0
11.1%
0-1
10.0%
2-1
8.8%
2-0
7.5%
1-2
6.9%
Cerro Largo0
Albion1Winner
12 70%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Cerro Largo0Albion1Winner
12 70%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 62%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 72%
Central Español0
Nacional1Winner
2 59%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
0-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Central Español0Nacional1Winner
2 59%
BTTS*
No 53%
Correct Score
0-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 66%
Cerro–Cerro Largo–Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 57%
Correct Score
0-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Cerro–Cerro Largo–Winner
12 71%
BTTS*
No 57%
Correct Score
0-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 66%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 74%
Nacional–
Deportivo Maldonado–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
Nacional–Deportivo Maldonado–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 52%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 70%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Primera Division xG: chances created and allowed
Every Primera Division team's chances created and allowed a game, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
each logo is a team · tap one for detailseach logo is a team · hover one for detailsPrimera Division average · 1.16 xG, 1.21 xGAlast 10 games eachTap a logo to see the team's numbers
↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
Teams by box· 15
Good attack, good defence
Good attack, weak defence
Weak attack, good defence
Weak attack, weak defence
Not in the chart yet: Liverpool (under 5 games here).
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →Primera Division Results vs the Odds
Season 2026 and the last 30 days
How often each result has happened in Primera Division this season (thick bar) and in the last 30 days (thin bar), next to what the bookmakers’ closing odds expected. The last 30 days cover fewer matches, so their normal range is wider and big swings there are still normal. This is not our prediction accuracy.
How to read it
what the closing odds expectednormal range: chance alone lands here 19 times in 20gap to the odds, in percentage pointsgap outside the normal rangethick bar: Season · thin bar: 30 days
Result · happened
◀ fewer −20◀ fewer than expected · −20 pts odds expected+20 more ▶+20 pts · more than expected ▶
Verdict
Home wins
254 matches
41.3%
Season (254) · 41.3% vs 40.6%
Season
+0.8
±5.8
30 days (38) · 42.1% vs 40.6%
30 days
+1.5
±14.9
Draws
254 matches
26.0%
Season (254) · 26.0% vs 28.0%
Season
−2.0
±5.5
30 days (38) · 26.3% vs 27.2%
30 days
−0.8
±14.1
Away wins
254 matches
32.7%
Season (254) · 32.7% vs 31.4%
Season
+1.2
±5.5
30 days (38) · 31.6% vs 32.3%
30 days
−0.7
±14.2
Over 2.5 goals
254 matches
44.5%
Season (254) · 44.5% vs 41.8%
Season
+2.6
±6.0
30 days (38) · 50.0% vs 44.8%
30 days
+5.2
±15.7
Both teams scored
254 matches
51.2%
Season (254) · 51.2% vs 45.9%
Season
+5.3
±6.1
30 days (38) · 63.2% vs 47.9%
30 days
+15.3
±15.8
Show more markets (6)Show fewer markets
Over 3.5 goals
254 matches
21.3%
Season (254) · 21.3% vs 21.3%
Season
0.0
±5.0
30 days (38) · 28.9% vs 23.7%
30 days
+5.3
±13.5
Home side ahead at half-time
254 matches
31.1%
Season (254) · 31.1% vs 30.2%
Season
+0.9
±5.5
30 days (38) · 36.8% vs 30.7%
30 days
+6.2
±14.4
Level at half-time
254 matches
46.1%
Season (254) · 46.1% vs 45.4%
Season
+0.6
±6.1
30 days (38) · 36.8% vs 44.3%
30 days
−7.4
±15.8
Away side ahead at half-time
254 matches
22.8%
Season (254) · 22.8% vs 24.4%
Season
−1.5
±5.2
30 days (38) · 26.3% vs 25.1%
30 days
+1.3
±13.5
Home team scored 2+
254 matches
36.6%
Season (254) · 36.6% vs 35.8%
Season
+0.8
±5.7
30 days (38) · 36.8% vs 37.7%
30 days
−0.9
±15.0
Away team scored 2+
254 matches
27.2%
Season (254) · 27.2% vs 29.0%
Season
−1.8
±5.5
30 days (38) · 39.5% vs 30.4%
30 days
+9.0
±14.3
Shows what happened, not what comes next. Closing odds from one bookmaker per match, bookmaker margin removed. Updated daily.
Show as a tableHide the table
| Result | Period | Matches | Happened | Odds expected | Gap (pts) | Normal range (± pts) | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home wins | Season | 254 | 41.3% | 40.6% | +0.8 | ±5.8 | Normal range |
| Home wins | 30 days | 38 | 42.1% | 40.6% | +1.5 | ±14.9 | Normal range |
| Draws | Season | 254 | 26.0% | 28.0% | −2.0 | ±5.5 | Normal range |
| Draws | 30 days | 38 | 26.3% | 27.2% | −0.8 | ±14.1 | Normal range |
| Away wins | Season | 254 | 32.7% | 31.4% | +1.2 | ±5.5 | Normal range |
| Away wins | 30 days | 38 | 31.6% | 32.3% | −0.7 | ±14.2 | Normal range |
| Over 2.5 goals | Season | 254 | 44.5% | 41.8% | +2.6 | ±6.0 | Normal range |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30 days | 38 | 50.0% | 44.8% | +5.2 | ±15.7 | Normal range |
| Both teams scored | Season | 254 | 51.2% | 45.9% | +5.3 | ±6.1 | Normal range |
| Both teams scored | 30 days | 38 | 63.2% | 47.9% | +15.3 | ±15.8 | Normal range |
| Over 3.5 goals | Season | 254 | 21.3% | 21.3% | 0.0 | ±5.0 | Normal range |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30 days | 38 | 28.9% | 23.7% | +5.3 | ±13.5 | Normal range |
| Home side ahead at half-time | Season | 254 | 31.1% | 30.2% | +0.9 | ±5.5 | Normal range |
| Home side ahead at half-time | 30 days | 38 | 36.8% | 30.7% | +6.2 | ±14.4 | Normal range |
| Level at half-time | Season | 254 | 46.1% | 45.4% | +0.6 | ±6.1 | Normal range |
| Level at half-time | 30 days | 38 | 36.8% | 44.3% | −7.4 | ±15.8 | Normal range |
| Away side ahead at half-time | Season | 254 | 22.8% | 24.4% | −1.5 | ±5.2 | Normal range |
| Away side ahead at half-time | 30 days | 38 | 26.3% | 25.1% | +1.3 | ±13.5 | Normal range |
| Home team scored 2+ | Season | 254 | 36.6% | 35.8% | +0.8 | ±5.7 | Normal range |
| Home team scored 2+ | 30 days | 38 | 36.8% | 37.7% | −0.9 | ±15.0 | Normal range |
| Away team scored 2+ | Season | 254 | 27.2% | 29.0% | −1.8 | ±5.5 | Normal range |
| Away team scored 2+ | 30 days | 38 | 39.5% | 30.4% | +9.0 | ±14.3 | Normal range |
Primera Division luck check: the last 10 games
Primera Division teams taking more or fewer points than their chances usually bring, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringnormal range (±4)outside it+7.1 = 7 points more than their chances usually bringRiding their luck2
Cerro7 of 10 games+7.1- Torque7 of 10 gamesClinical · +5 goals+4.5
Unlucky2
- Albion7 of 10 games−7.8
- Danubio7 of 10 gamesWasteful · −7 goals−5.7
Points in line, but wasteful: Racing (−3 goals, 6 games).
In line with their chances: Wanderers, Nacional, Peñarol, Boston River, Deportivo Maldonado, Juventud, Progreso, Cerro Largo, Central Español and Defensor Sporting.
No luck check yet for Liverpool: under 5 games with xG here in 12 months.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
How we measure →Primera Division last week: smash-and-grab wins and upsets
Smash-and-grab wins (the side with clearly fewer chances won) and upsets (results the closing odds gave under 20%) from the last 7 days.
How to read it
Oct 4–Oct 11 · 8 matches · odds: closing, margin removed
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Smash-and-grab: the winner had at least 0.8 less xG than the loser (our xG, from shots). Upset: the result the closing odds gave under 20%, with the bookmaker margin removed. Across our leagues about 6% of matches are smash-and-grab wins and about 5% are upsets.
How we measure →Primera Division Standings
Check the current league table, team positions, points, and form. Click to view complete standings with detailed statistics.
#TEAM | MP | PTS | W | D | L | G | GD | FORM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1  Torque | 10 | 22 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 20:10 | +10 | W L D L W |
2  Liverpool | 10 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 18:8 | +10 | D W W D L |
3  Peñarol | 10 | 21 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16:7 | +9 | D W D W W |
4  Deportivo Maldonado | 10 | 18 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:6 | +8 | D W W W L |
5  Juventud | 10 | 17 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 12:6 | +6 | W D D W D |
Champion Play-off
Final Tournament
MP=Matches Played
PTS=Points
W=Wins
D=Draws
L=Losses
G=Goals (For:Against)
GD=Goal Difference
FORM=Last 5 Matches
About Primera Division
The league profile compares Primera Division with the 63 leagues and cups we rank over the last 12 months (rank 1 = highest). The stats that stand out pick the most unusual numbers from each team's last 10 games. The attack vs defence chart puts each team in one of four boxes: top right creates more and allows fewer chances than the league average. The luck check shows who got more or fewer points than their chances in the last 10 games, and Last week lists wins with fewer chances and results the bookmakers gave under 20%.
These statistics represent prediction accuracy based on the last 100 matches in the league. Accuracy reflects how often the model correctly predicted the outcome for each market. Our football predictions are generated using advanced AI techniques combined with historical match data, team form, player availability, tactical trends, and head-to-head records to deliver reliable forecasts. Explore our prediction results tracker for live accuracy across all completed matches, our league accuracy data for competition-level breakdowns, or prediction performance for team-level insights.
Primera División is the top professional football league in Uruguay. It consists of 16 teams and operates on a system of promotion and relegation. Primera División is known for its competitive matches and technical quality. Club Nacional de Football and Club Atlético Peñarol are the most successful clubs in Primera División history.