Fast starters
7/10Defensor Sporting scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
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Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 14)
Fast starters
Defensor Sporting scored first in 7 of their last 10 (league 46%).
7/10Scored first · Defensor Sporting
Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Peñarol expected to create clearly more
2.3 goals in total, a little under the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Defensor Sporting1.0
Peñarol1.3Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Peñarol to win
Our model 45%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 3,614 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%
Our track record
In 6,459 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.1% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 59%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 5,312 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.2%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 79%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 3,554 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.1%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 47%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 4,270 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.9% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Defensor Sporting Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Defensor Sporting 0–1 goals
Our model 76%Bookmakers 80%
Our track record
In 816 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.6% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).
Peñarol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Peñarol 0–1 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 2,630 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.2% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Defensor Sporting–
Peñarol–Winner
X2 74%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Defensor Sporting–Peñarol–Winner
X2 74%
BTTS*
No 55%
Correct Score
1-1 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 59%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 69%
Full Time
126%
X30%
245%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 32% | 68% | 59% | 41% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 69% | 31% | 90% | 10% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 41% | 59% | 76% | 24% |
| 27% | 73% | 61% | 39% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
| 85% | 15% | 95% | 5% |
1st Half
120%
X47%
233%
1st Score
134%
X11%
255%
Half Time/Full Time
2-2
26%
X-X
19%
X-2
17%
1-1
12%
X-1
11%
2-X
6%
1-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
1%
Correct Score
1-1
13.3%
0-1
12.9%
0-0
10.6%
0-2
9.0%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.5%
2-1
6.1%
2-2
4.8%
2-0
4.4%
0-3
4.0%
1-3
3.8%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Defensor Sporting: fast starters and always on the scoresheet
7/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Defensor Sporting failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 29%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Defensor Sporting and Peñarol games more often than the Primera Division average (51%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 44%
Defensor Sporting5 of 10
Peñarol4 of 10
BTTSleague 51%
Defensor Sporting6 of 10
Peñarol6 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 286 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol — Recent Form
Last 5 matches
PeñarolD
D
L
D
W
Defensor SportingW
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Defensor Sporting 7th of 16 · Peñarol 1st of 16
Defensor Sporting vs Peñarol corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.5
- Cards: league 3.0
- Goals before half-time: league 45%
- Goals after 75': league 27%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Peñarol1/5
Defensor Sporting3/5
Both Teams to Score
Peñarol3/5
Defensor Sporting1/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Peñarol4/5
Defensor Sporting2/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Peñarol5/5
Defensor Sporting2/5
First Half Result
Peñarol4/5
Defensor Sporting1/5
Correct Score
Peñarol0/5
Defensor Sporting0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction