FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
Home Win
68.5% · Fair Odd: 1.46
MelBet1.27-12.7%Overpriced
Pinnacle1.28-12.4%Overpriced
- Home
- Bets to Avoid
Bets to Avoid Today – Overpriced Football Odds
Not every short price is a safe punt. The cards below are today's overpriced odds — bets where the bookmaker's price sits below our model's fair odds, so you'd be taking worse value than the match deserves. Same model, same maths as our value bets. It just cuts the other way here: the edge stays with the bookie. If one of these was going on your ticket, at least now you know what it costs you.
Looking for bets where the edge is on your side? Check today's value bets.
Match Winner Value Bets
Home Win Value Bets Today (1)
Sirius
Halmstad
Home Win
59.6% · Fair Odd: 1.68
Al Hilal
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Home Win
56.0% · Fair Odd: 1.78
Draw Value Bets Today (X)
Northampton Town
Oldham Athletic
Draw
26.6% · Fair Odd: 3.77
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
Draw
26.5% · Fair Odd: 3.77
Watford
Lincoln City
Draw
26.1% · Fair Odd: 3.83
Away Win Value Bets Today (2)
Anaitasuna FT
Deportivo Alavés
Away Win
83.2% · Fair Odd: 1.20
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
Away Win
51.5% · Fair Odd: 1.94
MelBet1.71-11.6%Overpriced
Pinnacle1.72-11.4%Overpriced
Deportivo Pereira
Deportes Tolima
Away Win
44.5% · Fair Odd: 2.25
Goals Over/Under Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals Value Bets (3+)
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
Over 2.5 Goals
72.4% · Fair Odd: 1.38
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
Over 2.5 Goals
64.4% · Fair Odd: 1.55
LASK Linz
Slovan Bratislava
Over 2.5 Goals
64.0% · Fair Odd: 1.56
Under 2.5 Goals Value Bets (0-2)
Northampton Town
Oldham Athletic
Under 2.5 Goals
53.2% · Fair Odd: 1.88
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares de Córdoba
Under 2.5 Goals
51.1% · Fair Odd: 1.96
bet3651.75-10.5%Overpriced
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
Under 2.5 Goals
51.1% · Fair Odd: 1.96
Betfair1.73-11.6%Overpriced
Over 1.5 Goals Value Bets (2+)
LASK Linz
Slovan Bratislava
Over 1.5 Goals
83.7% · Fair Odd: 1.20
Betfair1.06-11.3%Overpriced
Anaitasuna FT
Deportivo Alavés
Over 1.5 Goals
83.3% · Fair Odd: 1.20
Galatasaray
VfB Stuttgart
Over 1.5 Goals
83.1% · Fair Odd: 1.20
Under 1.5 Goals Value Bets (0-1)
Northampton Town
Oldham Athletic
Under 1.5 Goals
28.1% · Fair Odd: 3.56
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares de Córdoba
Under 1.5 Goals
26.8% · Fair Odd: 3.73
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
Under 1.5 Goals
26.4% · Fair Odd: 3.79
Over 3.5 Goals Value Bets (4+)
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
Over 3.5 Goals
53.5% · Fair Odd: 1.87
Galatasaray
VfB Stuttgart
Over 3.5 Goals
43.9% · Fair Odd: 2.28
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
Over 3.5 Goals
42.1% · Fair Odd: 2.37
Under 3.5 Goals Value Bets (0-3)
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
Under 3.5 Goals
73.1% · Fair Odd: 1.37
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
Under 3.5 Goals
66.5% · Fair Odd: 1.50
Portsmouth
Swansea City
Under 3.5 Goals
65.9% · Fair Odd: 1.52
Over 4.5 Goals Value Bets (5+)
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
Over 4.5 Goals
39.8% · Fair Odd: 2.51
Anaitasuna FT
Deportivo Alavés
Over 4.5 Goals
37.1% · Fair Odd: 2.70
Galatasaray
VfB Stuttgart
Over 4.5 Goals
29.1% · Fair Odd: 3.44
Under 4.5 Goals Value Bets (0-4)
Northampton Town
Oldham Athletic
Under 4.5 Goals
86.4% · Fair Odd: 1.16
Blackburn Rovers
Stoke City
Under 4.5 Goals
85.7% · Fair Odd: 1.17
Deportivo Pasto
Jaguares de Córdoba
Under 4.5 Goals
84.6% · Fair Odd: 1.18
Both Teams to Score Value Bets
Both Teams to Score – Yes (GG)
Atlético Madrid
FC Bayern München
Both Teams to Score
61.7% · Fair Odd: 1.62
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
Both Teams to Score
61.1% · Fair Odd: 1.64
Galatasaray
VfB Stuttgart
Both Teams to Score
60.1% · Fair Odd: 1.66
Both Teams to Score – No (NG)
Deportivo Pereira
Deportes Tolima
Both Teams to Score – No
49.9% · Fair Odd: 2.01
Pamplona
SD Eibar
Both Teams to Score – No
49.2% · Fair Odd: 2.03
bet3651.53-24.6%Overpriced
Betfair1.47-27.7%Overpriced
Northampton Town
Oldham Athletic
Both Teams to Score – No
48.1% · Fair Odd: 2.08
bet3651.83-11.8%Overpriced
Double Chance Value Bets
Home or Draw Value Bets (1X)
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
Home or Draw
84.3% · Fair Odd: 1.19
Betfair1.05-11.5%Overpriced
Sirius
Halmstad
Home or Draw
81.1% · Fair Odd: 1.23
Al Hilal
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Home or Draw
78.9% · Fair Odd: 1.27
Home or Away Value Bets (12)
Anaitasuna FT
Deportivo Alavés
Home or Away
89.0% · Fair Odd: 1.12
Sirius
Halmstad
Home or Away
78.5% · Fair Odd: 1.27
Al Hilal
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Home or Away
77.2% · Fair Odd: 1.30
Betfair1.14-12%Overpriced
Draw or Away Value Bets (X2)
Pamplona
SD Eibar
Draw or Away
77.9% · Fair Odd: 1.28
Betfair1.03-19.8%Overpriced
Deportivo Pereira
Deportes Tolima
Draw or Away
72.4% · Fair Odd: 1.38
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
Draw or Away
71.4% · Fair Odd: 1.40
Betfair1.17-16.4%Overpriced
1st Half Winner Value Bets
First Half Home Win Value Bets (HT 1)
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
First Half Home Win
55.3% · Fair Odd: 1.81
Sirius
Halmstad
First Half Home Win
46.1% · Fair Odd: 2.17
Al Hilal
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
First Half Home Win
43.1% · Fair Odd: 2.32
First Half Away Win Value Bets (HT 2)
Anaitasuna FT
Deportivo Alavés
First Half Away Win
61.7% · Fair Odd: 1.62
Preston North End
Sheffield United
First Half Away Win
36.3% · Fair Odd: 2.75
Betfair2.40-12.8%Overpriced
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
First Half Away Win
34.6% · Fair Odd: 2.89
Away Team Goals Value Bets
Away Team Under 1.5 Goals Value Bets (T2 0-1)
Sirius
Halmstad
Away Team Under 1.5 Goals
74.2% · Fair Odd: 1.35
Betfair1.20-11%Overpriced
LASK Linz
Slovan Bratislava
Away Team Under 1.5 Goals
61.1% · Fair Odd: 1.64
West Bromwich Albion
Southampton
Away Team Under 1.5 Goals
60.6% · Fair Odd: 1.65
Betfair1.45-12.1%Overpriced
Away Team Over 1.5 Goals Value Bets (T2 2+)
Anaitasuna FT
Deportivo Alavés
Away Team Over 1.5 Goals
74.8% · Fair Odd: 1.34
Villarreal
Paris Saint Germain
Away Team Over 1.5 Goals
54.9% · Fair Odd: 1.82
Atlético Madrid
FC Bayern München
Away Team Over 1.5 Goals
49.0% · Fair Odd: 2.04
Home Team Goals Value Bets
Home Team Over 1.5 Goals Value Bets (T1 2+)
FC Barcelona
Aston Villa
Home Team Over 1.5 Goals
71.1% · Fair Odd: 1.41
Sirius
Halmstad
Home Team Over 1.5 Goals
60.4% · Fair Odd: 1.65
Al Hilal
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Home Team Over 1.5 Goals
54.2% · Fair Odd: 1.84
Home Team Under 1.5 Goals Value Bets (T1 0-1)
Pamplona
SD Eibar
Home Team Under 1.5 Goals
76.2% · Fair Odd: 1.31
Deportivo Pereira
Deportes Tolima
Home Team Under 1.5 Goals
73.5% · Fair Odd: 1.36
Chapecoense
Mirassol
Home Team Under 1.5 Goals
64.6% · Fair Odd: 1.55
bet3651.36-12%Overpriced
What Is an Overpriced Bet?
An overpriced bet pays less than the outcome's real chance is worth. Say our model prices a home win at fair odds of 2.10 and the best price on the board is 1.65 — you're handing the bookie a fifth of your return before kick-off.
Short odds feel safe, and that's exactly why they get away with it. Favourites land on every acca in the country, the price gets clipped again, and the punter pays. The red badge on each card shows how far below fair odds the price sits.
How We Spot the Traps
Same engine as our value bets, running in reverse. The model prices every match across 76 leagues, turns probabilities into fair odds, and compares them against live prices from the bookmakers we track. Anything sitting well under fair value gets flagged as overpriced and lands here.
Odds move all day, so a trap can vanish when a bookmaker shifts its line back toward fair value — the page refreshes every few minutes.
Why Skipping Bad Odds Beats Chasing Winners
Ask anyone who keeps a proper record: most bankrolls don't die on longshots. They bleed out slowly on short-priced favourites taken at bad prices. Passing on a 1.50 that should be a 1.80 does more for your bottom line over a season than the occasional screamer.
We publish both sides of the same model — the value and the traps — and we track how it performs on our ROI tracker, losses included.
Bets to Avoid – FAQ
What does the red percentage on a card mean?
It shows how far the bookmaker's price sits below our fair odds. -12% means you're being paid 12% less than the outcome's real chance is worth. The deeper the red, the worse the deal.
Does overpriced mean the bet will lose?
No. Favourites at bad prices still win matches — that's what makes them traps. Overpriced means that taking this price every time loses you money long-term, even with a decent hit rate.
Where do the fair odds come from?
From our prediction model. It rates every match across 76 leagues and converts each probability into fair odds — the price at which the bet breaks even in the long run. We publish the model's accuracy per market and league, losses included.
How often is this page updated?
Odds are rescanned continuously and the page refreshes every few minutes. A bet drops off the list when a bookmaker moves its line back toward fair value.
Can I still back one of these bets?
Your call — it's your bankroll. If you like the pick, shop around: another bookmaker may price it much closer to fair value. That's half the point of showing you the numbers. And as always, only stake what you can afford.