ArgentinavsCape Verde Islands
1xbet11.16-27.7%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Home Win·62.4%·Fair Odd: 1.60
1xbet
Pinnacle11.16
-27.7%OverpricedBets to Avoid Today – Overpriced Football Odds
Not every short price is a safe punt. The cards below are today's overpriced odds — bets where the bookmaker's price sits below our model's fair odds, so you'd be taking worse value than the match deserves. Same model, same maths as our value bets. It just cuts the other way here: the edge stays with the bookie. If one of these was going on your ticket, at least now you know what it costs you.
Looking for bets where the edge is on your side? Check today's value bets.
Match Winner Value Bets
Home Win Value Bets Today (1)
SiriusvsMjällby1xbet11.68-18.8%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Home Win·48.3%·Fair Odd: 2.07
1xbetPinnacle11.69
-18.3%OverpricedDraw Value Bets Today (X)
AustraliavsEgypt1xbetX2.96-17.3%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Draw·27.9%·Fair Odd: 3.58
1xbetPinnacleX2.9
-18.9%OverpricedFlamengovsRiver Plate1xbetX3.35-12.2%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Draw·26.2%·Fair Odd: 3.82
1xbetBetfairX3.25
-14.9%OverpricedUnibetX3.25
-14.9%OverpricedAway Win Value Bets Today (2)
FlamengovsRiver Plate1xbet21.94-42.0%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Away Win·29.9%·Fair Odd: 3.34
1xbetUnibet22.02
-39.6%OverpricedBetfair21.91
-42.9%OverpricedGoals Over/Under Value Bets
Over 2.5 Goals Value Bets (3+)
ArgentinavsCape Verde Islands1xbet3+1.63-26.2%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Over 2.5 Goals·45.3%·Fair Odd: 2.21
1xbetPinnacle3+1.62
-26.7%Overpricedbet3653+1.61
-26.9%OverpricedUnder 2.5 Goals Value Bets (0-2)
AustraliavsEgypt1xbet0-21.47-11.9%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Under 2.5 Goals·60.0%·Fair Odd: 1.67
1xbetbet3650-21.5
-10.1%OverpricedPinnacle0-21.48
-11.3%OverpricedSiriusvsMjällby
Under 2.5 Goals·37.9%·Fair Odd: 2.64
bet3650-22.3
-12.8%OverpricedUnibet0-22.16
-18.1%OverpricedOver 3.5 Goals Value Bets (4+)
FlamengovsRiver Plate1xbet4+3.38-12.5%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Over 3.5 Goals·25.9%·Fair Odd: 3.86
1xbetBetfair4+3.3
-14.5%OverpricedUnibet4+3.3
-14.5%OverpricedArgentinavsCape Verde Islands1xbet4+2.36-43.5%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Over 3.5 Goals·23.9%·Fair Odd: 4.18
1xbetPinnacle4+2.6
-37.7%OverpricedUnibet4+2.55
-38.9%OverpricedUnder 3.5 Goals Value Bets (0-3)
Both Teams to Score Value Bets
Both Teams to Score – Yes (GG)
Double Chance Value Bets
Home or Draw Value Bets (1X)
ArgentinavsCape Verde Islands1xbet1X1.02-13.1%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Home or Draw·85.2%·Fair Odd: 1.17
1xbet888Sport1X1.03
-12.2%Overpricedbet3651X1.01
-13.5%OverpricedSiriusvsMjällby1xbet1X1.2-13.7%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Home or Draw·71.9%·Fair Odd: 1.39
1xbet888Sport1X1.2
-13.7%OverpricedBetfair1X1.17
-15.8%OverpricedDraw or Away Value Bets (X2)
AustraliavsEgypt
Draw or Away·70.9%·Fair Odd: 1.41
UnibetX21.26
-10.7%OverpricedBetfairX21.25
-11.4%OverpricedFlamengovsRiver Plate1xbetX21.22-31.6%OverpricedBet Now at 1xbet →
Draw or Away·56.1%·Fair Odd: 1.78
1xbetUnibetX21.24
-30.4%OverpricedBetfairX21.22
-31.6%Overpriced1st Half Winner Value Bets
First Half Home Win Value Bets (HT 1)
SiriusvsMjällby
First Half Home Win·41.1%·Fair Odd: 2.43
PinnacleHT 12.18
-10.3%Overpricedbet365HT 12.1
-13.6%OverpricedWhat Is an Overpriced Bet?
An overpriced bet pays less than the outcome's real chance is worth. Say our model prices a home win at fair odds of 2.10 and the best price on the board is 1.65 — you're handing the bookie a fifth of your return before kick-off.
Short odds feel safe, and that's exactly why they get away with it. Favourites land on every acca in the country, the price gets clipped again, and the punter pays. The red badge on each card shows how far below fair odds the price sits.
How We Spot the Traps
Same engine as our value bets, running in reverse. The model prices every match across 76 leagues, turns probabilities into fair odds, and compares them against live prices from the bookmakers we track. Anything sitting well under fair value gets flagged as overpriced and lands here.
Odds move all day, so a trap can vanish when a bookmaker shifts its line back toward fair value — the page refreshes every few minutes.
Why Skipping Bad Odds Beats Chasing Winners
Ask anyone who keeps a proper record: most bankrolls don't die on longshots. They bleed out slowly on short-priced favourites taken at bad prices. Passing on a 1.50 that should be a 1.80 does more for your bottom line over a season than the occasional screamer.
We publish both sides of the same model — the value and the traps — and we track how it performs on our ROI tracker, losses included.
Bets to Avoid – FAQ
What does the red percentage on a card mean?
It shows how far the bookmaker's price sits below our fair odds. -12% means you're being paid 12% less than the outcome's real chance is worth. The deeper the red, the worse the deal.
Does overpriced mean the bet will lose?
No. Favourites at bad prices still win matches — that's what makes them traps. Overpriced means that taking this price every time loses you money long-term, even with a decent hit rate.
Where do the fair odds come from?
From our prediction model. It rates every match across 76 leagues and converts each probability into fair odds — the price at which the bet breaks even in the long run. We publish the model's accuracy per market and league, losses included.
How often is this page updated?
Odds are rescanned continuously and the page refreshes every few minutes. A bet drops off the list when a bookmaker moves its line back toward fair value.
Can I still back one of these bets?
Your call — it's your bankroll. If you like the pick, shop around: another bookmaker may price it much closer to fair value. That's half the point of showing you the numbers. And as always, only stake what you can afford.