Slow starters
2/10Cerro Largo scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
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Cerro Largo vs Atlético Progreso Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Primera Division - Season 2026 (Round 14)
Slow starters
Cerro Largo scored first in only 2 of their last 10 (league 46%).
2/10Scored first · Cerro Largo
Cerro Largo vs Progreso score prediction
Primera Division
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
Cerro Largo expected to create clearly more
2.2 goals in total, a little under the Primera Division average of 2.4.
goals expected
Cerro Largo1.3
Progreso0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for Cerro Largo vs Progreso: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Primera Division
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cerro Largo to win
Our model 41%Bookmakers 49%
Our track record
In 3,615 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).
Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
No, not both
Our model 54%Bookmakers 52%
Our track record
In 6,475 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
Our model 61%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 62.7%).
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 81%Bookmakers 77%
Our track record
In 1,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.9% of the time (bookmakers said 81.2%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 50%Bookmakers 45%
Our track record
In 4,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).
Cerro Largo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Cerro Largo 0–1 goals
Our model 66%Bookmakers 56%
Our track record
In 2,646 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Progreso Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Progreso 0–1 goals
Our model 74%Bookmakers 75%
Our track record
In 3,373 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.4% of the time (bookmakers said 71.9%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
Cerro Largo vs Progreso — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for Cerro Largo vs Progreso. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
Cerro Largo–
Progreso–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Cerro Largo–Progreso–Winner
1X 71%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-1 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 61%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 71%
Full Time
141%
X29%
229%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 35% | 65% | 61% | 39% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 71% | 29% | 91% | 9% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30% | 70% | 66% | 34% |
| 39% | 61% | 74% | 26% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 92% | 8% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
130%
X49%
221%
1st Score
151%
X11%
238%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
23%
X-X
21%
X-1
16%
2-2
15%
X-2
12%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-1
13.6%
1-0
13.5%
0-0
10.9%
0-1
10.3%
2-1
8.7%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
6.8%
0-2
5.0%
2-2
4.1%
3-1
3.1%
3-0
3.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Cerro Largo vs Progreso: the stats that stand out
Primera Division
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Cerro Largo: slow starters · Progreso: always on the scoresheet
2/10Always on the scoresheet
1/10Progreso failed to score in only 1 of their last 10 (league 30%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →Cerro Largo vs Progreso: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Primera Division
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Primera Division gamesBTTS = both teams scoredCerro Largo and Progreso games both go over 2.5 goals less often than the Primera Division average (43%).
Over 2.5 goalsleague 43%
Cerro Largo3 of 10
Progreso4 of 10
BTTSleague 50%
Cerro Largo5 of 10
Progreso5 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 292 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →Cerro Largo vs Progreso — Recent Form
Last 5 matches
ProgresoL
W
W
D
L
Cerro LargoL
W
D
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: Cerro Largo 11th of 16 · Progreso 15th of 16
Cerro Largo vs Progreso corners, cards and goal times
Primera Division
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 4.5
- Cards: league 3.0
- Goals before half-time: league 46%
- Goals after 75': league 27%
Corners and cards for every league: League stats →
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Cerro Largo3/5
Progreso2/5
Both Teams to Score
Cerro Largo2/5
Progreso3/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Cerro Largo3/5
Progreso4/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Cerro Largo4/5
Progreso4/5
First Half Result
Cerro Largo2/5
Progreso3/5
Correct Score
Cerro Largo0/5
Progreso0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction