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Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr 0-4 Score & Prediction Review

Pro League - Season 2026/2027 (Round 2)

Fair result
Al RiyadhAl Riyadh

0–4

Al NassrAl Nassr
0.9Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Al Riyadh would usually take 0.8 points and Al Nassr 2.0; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Al Nassr.

Al Riyadh −0.8 pts vs chancesAl Nassr +1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr stats: how the match was played

Pro League

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Al Nassr had more than twice the shots on target

Al Riyadh

Al Nassr

1

Shots on target

5

1

Big chances

5

3

Corners

9

0

Yellow cards

0

44%

Possession

56%

The match between Al Riyadh and Al Nassr ended 0-4. Our AI model correctly predicted an Al Nassr win with 72% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Al Draih – Al Riyadh prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Pro League

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Nassr to win

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 325 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.0% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 286 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Nassr ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 56%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 302 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.6% of the time (bookmakers said 57.9%).

Al Riyadh Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Riyadh 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 81%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 395 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.5% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Al Nassr Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Al Nassr 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 72%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,381 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 71.5% of the time (bookmakers said 72.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr 0-4 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Al Riyadh vs Al Nassr. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Pro League - Saudi Arabia
Al RiyadhAl Riyadh0
Al NassrAl Nassr4

Winner

2 72%

BTTS*

Yes 53%

Correct Score

0-2 10%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 69%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

over 56%

Full Time

112%
X17%
272%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT14%86%31%69%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT44%56%67%33%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Al Riyadh55%45%81%19%
Al Nassr9%91%28%72%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Al Riyadh93%7%98%2%
Al Nassr53%47%75%25%

1st Half

113%
X31%
256%

1st Score

121%
X4%
275%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

52%

X-2

17%

X-X

10%

1-1

6%

X-1

4%

2-X

4%

1-X

3%

1-2

3%

2-1

1%

Correct Score

0-2

9.6%

1-2

9.6%

0-3

9.2%

0-1

7.7%

1-3

7.6%

1-1

6.6%

2-2

4.4%

0-0

3.7%

2-3

3.4%

2-1

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Al Draih – Al Riyadh prediction & betting tips (Oct 20, 2026).

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