Always chasing
9/10Corinthians conceded first in 9 of their last 10 (league 47%).
São Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction, Stats & Betting Tips
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 34)
Unlucky
Corinthians are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
−13points fewer than their chances usually bring in their last 10
83% of teams this far behind their chances got more points in their next 10 games.
Bookmakers: Corinthians 25% to winSão Paulo 46%
São Paulo vs Corinthians score prediction
Serie A
The goals we expect each side to score, not an exact score: built from both teams' chances, the bookmakers' view and real goals here.
São Paulo expected to create clearly more
2.3 goals in total: fewer goals than usual (the Serie A average is 2.7).
goals expected
São Paulo1.4Corinthians0.9Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
We look at how many chances each team has created and allowed in its recent games in this league, what the bookmakers expected from those games, and the goals actually scored. Then we compare that with how many goals home and away teams usually score here.
Does it work? Since July 2025, our numbers have been 7% closer to the real goals than just using the league average.
How we measure →Get our AI football prediction and stats for São Paulo vs Corinthians: our model’s probabilities next to the bookmakers’ odds in each market, how often similar predictions came true, and both teams’ recent form.
São Paulo vs Corinthians — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
For each market: our model’s probability for this match, the bookmakers’ probability from the current odds (margin removed), whether the two agree, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months. When they disagree, the bookmakers’ number has usually been the better guide.
How to read it
our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
São Paulo to win
Our model 56%Bookmakers 46%
Our track record
In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Yes, both score
Our model 52%Bookmakers 44%
Our track record
In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Over 2.5 goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 2,848 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
Our model 73%Bookmakers 83%
Our track record
In 4,543 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.2% of the time (bookmakers said 71.4%).
First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
Our model 43%Bookmakers 48%
Our track record
In 6,632 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.4% of the time (bookmakers said 44.1%).
São Paulo Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
São Paulo 2+ goals
Our model 51%Bookmakers 37%
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Corinthians Goals →Agrees with bookmakers
Our model’s pick
Corinthians 0–1 goals
Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%
Our track record
In 2,569 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.7% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).
Odds can still move before kick-off. The track record uses closing odds.
São Paulo vs Corinthians — AI Prediction & Probabilities by Market
Below are our AI-generated match predictions for São Paulo vs Corinthians. Each market shows the probability of each outcome based on our model's analysis of team form, historical data and current season performance.
São Paulo–
Corinthians–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
São Paulo–Corinthians–Winner
1 56%
BTTS*
Yes 52%
Correct Score
1-0 12%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
over 50%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 63%
Full Time
156%
X24%
220%
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 25% | 75% | 50% | 50% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 63% | 37% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18% | 82% | 49% | 51% |
| 43% | 57% | 77% | 23% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 91% | 9% |
| 93% | 7% | 98% | 2% |
1st Half
142%
X43%
215%
1st Score
165%
X7%
228%
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
35%
X-1
20%
X-X
16%
2-2
8%
X-2
7%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
3%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
12.2%
1-1
11.6%
2-1
11.2%
2-0
9.9%
0-0
6.9%
0-1
6.2%
1-2
5.5%
3-0
5.5%
3-1
5.4%
2-2
4.9%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
São Paulo vs Corinthians: the stats that stand out
Serie A
Where each side is most unusual compared with the rest of the league: clean sheets, scoring first, wins as favourites and more.
How to read it
the teamleague averageshare of games, 0 to 100%Corinthians: always chasing, flop as favourites and leaky
9/10Flop as favourites
0/6Corinthians won none of 6 as favourites (league 53%).
Leaky
0/10Corinthians kept no clean sheet in their last 10 (league 25%).
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We compare each team's last 10 games in this competition with how often the same thing happens across the whole league (last 12 months). A fact only shows when the team is noticeably different from a typical team. For example, if teams here score first in half their games, a team needs 7 or more out of 10 (or 3 or fewer). We show up to three facts, the most unusual first, never two about the same thing. They describe what happened, not a forecast.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Corinthians: attack vs defence
Serie A
Both sides' chances created and allowed a game, next to the rest of the league, measured with our own xG.
How to read it
other Serie A teamsleague averagelast 10 games↑ Fewer chances allowed (xGA a game)
More chances created (xG a game) →
- São Paulo: good attack, good defence (1.72 xG, 1.26 xGA a game)
- Corinthians: weak attack, good defence (1.58 xG, 1.59 xGA)
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
xG is our estimate of how many goals a team's chances were worth, from the shots in each match; xGA is the same for the chances it allowed. The dashed lines are the average of the teams shown. A team close to a line is about average. Teams with fewer than 5 games here aren't in the chart yet.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Corinthians form and luck check
Serie A
Whether each side is taking more or fewer points than its chances usually bring.
How to read it
what their chances usually bringoutside the normal range (±4)last 10 Serie A gamesCorinthians are taking fewer points than their chances usually bring
- São PauloBookmakers: 46% to win today.Wasteful · −6 goals−0.7
- CorinthiansBookmakers: 25% to win today.Wasteful · −4 goals−13.3
Last 5 matches
São PauloD
W
W
L
L
CorinthiansL
D
L
L
L
W
D
L
Strength rank: São Paulo 10th of 20 · Corinthians 15th of 20
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
For each of a team's last 10 games, we work out how many points a team usually gets from a game with those chances (xG) for and against, add them up and compare with the points it actually got. We do the same for goals. Strong teams often get a bit more than their chances suggest, so we compare each team with sides of similar strength in this league. That way nobody is flagged just for being good.
We flag a team when the gap is 4 points or more (or 3 goals or more). If some games have no xG data, we use the ones that do.
Does it mean anything? 85% of teams 4+ points ahead of their chances got fewer points in their next 10 games, and 83% of teams 4+ points behind got more. Bookmakers already expect these gaps to even out, so it's a fan's read, not a betting edge.
Strength rank: we rank this season's 20 teams by how much better their attack is than their defence, using chances (xG), the odds and goals. Does it work? Over the first half of a season, this rank predicted the second half better than the league table did.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Corinthians: Over 2.5 & BTTS?
Serie A
How often each side's recent league games had over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring.
How to read it
a game where it happenedleague averagelast 10 Serie A gamesBTTS = both teams scoredBoth teams score in Corinthians games more often than the Serie A average (57%), in São Paulo games less often.
Over 2.5 goalsleague 52%
São Paulo3 of 10
Corinthians8 of 10
BTTSleague 57%
São Paulo4 of 10
Corinthians9 of 10
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
For each team we take its last 10 games in this competition from the past 12 months (fewer if it hasn't played 10) and count how many went over 2.5 goals and how many had both teams scoring. The league figure uses all 403 games played here in the last 12 months.
How we measure →São Paulo vs Corinthians corners, cards and goal times
Serie A
Each side's corners and cards a game, and when it scores and concedes, from its recent league games.
How to read it
league averagelast 10 in the league · corners and cards per game- Corners won: league 5.2
- Cards: league 2.4
- Goals before half-time: league 44%
- Goals after 75': league 23%
Calculated by MyGameOdds
How it works
We use each team's last 10 games here. Corners and cards only count games where those stats were recorded, and goal times only count games with reliable goal minutes, so some teams have fewer than 10. We compare with the whole league over the last 12 months.
How we measure →Our prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Corinthians3/5
São Paulo3/5
Both Teams to Score
Corinthians1/5
São Paulo2/5
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Corinthians1/5
São Paulo3/5
Over/Under 3.5 Goals
Corinthians2/5
São Paulo5/5
First Half Result
Corinthians1/5
São Paulo3/5
Correct Score
Corinthians0/5
São Paulo0/5
correct predictionwrong prediction