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Flamengo vs Mirassol 2-0 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 4)

Fair result
FlamengoFlamengo

2–0

MirassolMirassol
1.6Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Flamengo would usually take 1.9 points and Mirassol 0.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Flamengo.

Flamengo +1.1 pts vs chancesMirassol −0.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Flamengo vs Mirassol stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Flamengo had more than twice the shots on target

Flamengo

Mirassol

4

Shots on target

2

5

Big chances

2

9

Corners

7

0

Yellow cards

2

57%

Possession

43%

The match between Flamengo and Mirassol ended 2-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Flamengo win with 69% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – Flamengo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Flamengo vs Mirassol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo to win

Correct
Our model 69%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 59%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo ahead at half-time

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Flamengo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Flamengo 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 58%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Mirassol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mirassol 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 88%Bookmakers 90%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Flamengo vs Mirassol 2-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Flamengo vs Mirassol. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
FlamengoFlamengo2
MirassolMirassol0

Winner

1 69%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

169%
X20%
210%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%82%18%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Flamengo14%86%42%58%
Mirassol59%41%88%12%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Flamengo69%31%87%13%
Mirassol97%3%99%1%

1st Half

152%
X36%
212%

1st Score

172%
X8%
221%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

47%

X-1

21%

X-X

12%

2-2

5%

1-X

4%

X-2

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

15.3%

2-0

14.2%

2-1

9.6%

1-1

9.0%

3-0

8.7%

0-0

7.8%

3-1

5.7%

0-1

4.2%

2-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – Flamengo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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