Home
Leagues
Serie A
Fluminense vs Bragantino

Fluminense vs Bragantino 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Robbed

Fluminense drew despite more chances

Fluminense

1–1

Bragantino

2.1Chances (xG)0.5

On these chances Fluminense would usually take 2.4 points and Bragantino 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Fluminense.

Fluminense −1.4 pts vs chancesBragantino +0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Fluminense vs Bragantino stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Fluminense had more than twice the shots on target

Fluminense

Bragantino

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Fluminense and Bragantino ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Fluminense win at 59% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Fluminense vs Bragantino — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense to win

Wrong

Our model 59%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: No, not both.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Over 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Under 2.5 goals.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 46%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 69%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 3,986 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense ahead at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Draw at half-time.

Our model 43%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Fluminense Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 2+ goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Fluminense 0–1 goals.

Our model 55%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Bragantino Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bragantino 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Fluminense vs Bragantino 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Fluminense vs Bragantino. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Fluminense1

Bragantino1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Fluminense1

Bragantino1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

Yes 54%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

over 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 59%

Full Time

159%

X23%

219%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	22%	78%	46%	54%	59%	41%	81%	19%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	22%	78%	46%	54%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	59%	41%	81%	19%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	16%	84%	45%	55%	72%	28%	89%	11%
	44%	56%	77%	23%	93%	7%	98%	2%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	16%	84%	45%	55%
	44%	56%	77%	23%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	72%	28%	89%	11%
	93%	7%	98%	2%

1st Half

142%

X40%

218%

1st Score

164%

X6%

230%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

36%

X-1

19%

X-X

14%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

11.5%

1-1

11.0%

2-1

10.9%

2-0

10.0%

3-1

6.0%

3-0

5.9%

0-0

5.8%

1-2

5.2%

0-1

5.1%

2-2

4.8%

3-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).