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Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 19)

Fair result
Atlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro

1–1

BahiaBahia
1.5Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 1.2 points and Bahia 1.6; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.

Atlético Mineiro −0.2 pts vs chancesBahia −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Atlético Mineiro

Bahia

4

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

3

6

Corners

4

0

Yellow cards

2

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Atlético Mineiro and Bahia ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Atlético Mineiro win at 54% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – Flamengo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro to win

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 74%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 41%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Atlético Mineiro Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atlético Mineiro 2+ goals.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.

Bahia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bahia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Bahia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
Atlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro1
BahiaBahia1

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-0 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 52%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

154%
X25%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT27%73%52%48%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlético Mineiro20%80%52%48%
Bahia44%56%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlético Mineiro78%22%92%8%
Bahia93%7%98%2%

1st Half

140%
X40%
220%

1st Score

161%
X8%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

19%

X-X

15%

2-2

11%

X-2

8%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

4%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

12.9%

1-1

11.9%

2-1

10.4%

2-0

9.9%

0-0

7.7%

0-1

6.7%

1-2

5.4%

3-0

5.3%

3-1

5.1%

2-2

4.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Bahia – Flamengo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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