Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino 1-0 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 21)
Atlético Mineiro won with less than half the chances
Atlético Mineiro1–0
BragantinoOn these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 0.6 points and Bragantino 2.2; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Bragantino had more than twice the shots on target
Atlético Mineiro
Bragantino
3
Shots on target
7
2
Big chances
2
5
Corners
10
1
Yellow cards
1
40%
Possession
60%
Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro to win
CorrectOur track record
In 1,737 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 60.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.
Our track record
In 3,039 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.
Our track record
In 2,766 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.0% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 4,428 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.7%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongOur track record
In 6,500 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).
Our model’s pick
Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,713 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.2% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).
Our model’s pick
Bragantino 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,530 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.3% of the time (bookmakers said 76.5%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Atlético Mineiro1
Bragantino0Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Atlético Mineiro1Bragantino0Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 50%
Correct Score
1-0 13%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 52%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 64%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 28% | 72% | 52% | 48% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 64% | 36% | 85% | 15% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19% | 81% | 51% | 49% |
| 45% | 55% | 79% | 21% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77% | 23% | 92% | 8% |
| 94% | 6% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
19%
X-X
16%
2-2
10%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
4%
1-2
2%
Correct Score
1-0
13.3%
1-1
11.7%
2-1
10.2%
2-0
10.2%
0-0
8.1%
0-1
6.3%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.3%
3-1
5.2%
2-2
4.4%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Atlético Mineiro vs Bragantino — Recent Form
Atlético Mineiro have won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 7th in the table. Bragantino have won 0, drawn 2 and lost 3 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 10th in the table.
Last 5 matches
Atlético MineiroBragantinoOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
Atlético MineiroBragantinoBoth Teams to Score
Atlético MineiroBragantinoOver/Under 2.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroBragantinoOver/Under 3.5 Goals
Atlético MineiroBragantinoFirst Half Result
Atlético MineiroBragantinoCorrect Score
Atlético MineiroBragantino