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Coritiba vs Chapecoense 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 22)

Fair result
CoritibaCoritiba

2–1

ChapecoenseChapecoense
1.5Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Coritiba would usually take 1.7 points and Chapecoense 1.1; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Coritiba.

Coritiba +1.3 pts vs chancesChapecoense −1.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Coritiba vs Chapecoense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Coritiba

Chapecoense

4

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

2

5

Corners

6

1

Yellow cards

1

35%

Possession

65%

The match between Coritiba and Chapecoense ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Coritiba win with 50% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Coritiba – Grêmio prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

Coritiba vs Chapecoense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Coritiba to win

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,508 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 76%

Our track record

In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Coritiba ahead at half-time.

Our model 47%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 531 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 35.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.9% than to our 45–50%.

Coritiba Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Coritiba 0–1 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Coritiba 2+ goals.

Our model 58%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,026 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 43.1% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.1% than to our 55–60%.

Chapecoense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chapecoense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 2,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Coritiba vs Chapecoense 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Coritiba vs Chapecoense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
CoritibaCoritiba2
ChapecoenseChapecoense1

Winner

1X 77%

BTTS*

No 53%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

150%
X27%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT69%31%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Coritiba24%76%58%42%
Chapecoense43%57%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Coritiba83%17%94%6%
Chapecoense94%6%99%1%

1st Half

135%
X47%
218%

1st Score

157%
X10%
233%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

20%

X-1

19%

2-2

12%

X-2

10%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.0%

1-1

12.7%

2-1

9.7%

2-0

9.7%

0-0

9.5%

0-1

8.5%

1-2

5.8%

3-1

4.4%

3-0

4.4%

2-2

4.3%

0-2

3.7%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Coritiba – Grêmio prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

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