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Cruzeiro vs Mirassol 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 22)

Smash-and-grab

Cruzeiro won with fewer chances than Mirassol

CruzeiroCruzeiro

3–1

MirassolMirassol
1.1Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Cruzeiro would usually take 0.9 points and Mirassol 1.9; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Cruzeiro.

Cruzeiro +2.1 pts vs chancesMirassol −1.9 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Cruzeiro

Mirassol

3

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

2

4

Corners

1

3

Yellow cards

2

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Cruzeiro and Mirassol ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Cruzeiro win with 59% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grêmio – Cruzeiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro to win

Correct
Our model 60%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 1,802 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.2% of the time (bookmakers said 61.3%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Yes, both score.

Our model 54%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 3,139 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 76%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro ahead at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Cruzeiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Cruzeiro 2+ goals

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Mirassol Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Mirassol 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 83%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Cruzeiro vs Mirassol 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Cruzeiro vs Mirassol. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
CruzeiroCruzeiro3
MirassolMirassol1

Winner

1 59%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 54%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 66%

Full Time

159%
X24%
217%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%54%46%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT66%34%86%14%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Cruzeiro18%82%50%50%
Mirassol49%51%83%17%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Cruzeiro76%24%91%9%
Mirassol96%4%99%1%

1st Half

146%
X40%
214%

1st Score

168%
X8%
224%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

42%

X-1

21%

X-X

13%

2-2

7%

X-2

5%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.5%

2-0

11.6%

1-1

11.3%

2-1

10.5%

0-0

7.7%

3-0

6.4%

0-1

6.4%

3-1

5.1%

1-2

4.5%

2-2

3.8%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Grêmio – Cruzeiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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