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Botafogo vs Athletico PR 2-3 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 24)

Smash-and-grab

Athletico PR won with less than half the chances

BotafogoBotafogo

2–3

Athletico PRAthletico PR
3.1Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Botafogo would usually take 2.5 points and Athletico PR 0.4; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Botafogo.

Botafogo −2.5 pts vs chancesAthletico PR +2.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Botafogo vs Athletico PR stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Botafogo

Athletico PR

8

Shots on target

6

4

Big chances

3

13

Corners

2

2

Yellow cards

1

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Botafogo and Athletico PR ended 2-3. Our AI model predicted a Botafogo win at 54% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Both Teams To Score — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Remo – Botafogo prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

Botafogo vs Athletico PR — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo to win

Wrong
Our model 54%Bookmakers 41%

Our track record

In 2,492 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 55%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 2,854 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 74%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 4,583 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 44%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 6,715 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

Botafogo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Botafogo 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,822 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Athletico PR Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletico PR 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 77%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,597 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.1% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Botafogo vs Athletico PR 2-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Botafogo vs Athletico PR. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
BotafogoBotafogo2
Athletico PRAthletico PR3

Winner

1 54%

BTTS*

Yes 50%

Correct Score

1-0 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 64%

Full Time

154%
X25%
221%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT64%36%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Botafogo19%81%51%49%
Athletico PR44%56%77%23%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Botafogo77%23%92%8%
Athletico PR93%7%98%2%

1st Half

140%
X43%
216%

1st Score

163%
X7%
229%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

35%

X-1

20%

X-X

17%

2-2

8%

X-2

6%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

12.5%

1-1

11.9%

2-1

10.3%

2-0

10.0%

0-0

7.4%

0-1

6.5%

3-0

5.6%

1-2

5.5%

3-1

5.1%

2-2

4.6%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Remo – Botafogo prediction & betting tips (Oct 29, 2026).

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