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  4. São Paulo vs Bragantino

São Paulo vs Bragantino 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 25)

Fair result
São PauloSão Paulo

2–1

BragantinoBragantino
2.3Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances São Paulo would usually take 2.4 points and Bragantino 0.5; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: São Paulo.

São Paulo +0.6 pts vs chancesBragantino −0.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

São Paulo vs Bragantino stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

São Paulo had more than twice the shots on target

São Paulo

Bragantino

8

Shots on target

3

1

Big chances

1

9

Corners

7

3

Yellow cards

4

38%

Possession

62%

The match between São Paulo and Bragantino ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a São Paulo win with 51% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 3 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Remo – Bragantino prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

São Paulo vs Bragantino — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

São Paulo to win

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 38%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Yes, both score

Correct
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 73%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 45%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 6,723 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 44.7% of the time (bookmakers said 44.2%).

São Paulo Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

São Paulo 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Bragantino Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Bragantino 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 75%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

São Paulo vs Bragantino 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for São Paulo vs Bragantino. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
São PauloSão Paulo2
BragantinoBragantino1

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

Yes 52%

Correct Score

1-1 12%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

151%
X26%
223%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT26%74%51%49%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT63%37%85%15%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
São Paulo21%79%53%47%
Bragantino41%59%75%25%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
São Paulo79%21%92%8%
Bragantino92%8%98%2%

1st Half

137%
X44%
218%

1st Score

159%
X7%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

30%

X-X

19%

X-1

18%

2-2

10%

X-2

8%

1-X

6%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.2%

1-0

11.8%

2-1

10.2%

2-0

9.3%

0-0

7.4%

0-1

6.9%

1-2

6.0%

2-2

5.1%

3-1

4.8%

3-0

4.7%

0-2

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Remo – Bragantino prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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