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Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense 3-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 27)

Fair result
Atlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro

3–1

FluminenseFluminense
1.8Chances (xG)0.9

On these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 2.0 points and Fluminense 0.8; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.

Atlético Mineiro +1.0 pts vs chancesFluminense −0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Atlético Mineiro had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Mineiro

Fluminense

7

Shots on target

3

4

Big chances

1

5

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

2

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Atlético Mineiro and Fluminense ended 3-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Atlético Mineiro win with 47% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro to win

Correct
Our model 47%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 55%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 57%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 80%Bookmakers 78%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Atlético Mineiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Fluminense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Fluminense 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense 3-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Fluminense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Serie A - Brazil
Atlético MineiroAtlético Mineiro3
FluminenseFluminense1

Winner

1X 76%

BTTS*

No 54%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 60%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 70%

Full Time

147%
X30%
224%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT35%65%60%40%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT70%30%89%11%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlético Mineiro26%74%61%39%
Fluminense44%56%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlético Mineiro85%15%95%5%
Fluminense93%7%98%2%

1st Half

129%
X51%
219%

1st Score

153%
X12%
235%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

25%

X-X

21%

X-1

17%

2-2

12%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

14.8%

1-1

12.7%

0-0

11.6%

2-1

9.4%

2-0

9.1%

0-1

8.7%

1-2

5.6%

2-2

3.9%

3-0

3.8%

0-2

3.5%

3-1

3.4%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Fluminense – Santos prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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