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Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense

Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 28)

Robbed

Atlético Mineiro drew despite more chances

Atlético Mineiro

1–1

Chapecoense

3.1Chances (xG)0.7

On these chances Atlético Mineiro would usually take 2.7 points and Chapecoense 0.3; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Mineiro.

Atlético Mineiro −1.7 pts vs chancesChapecoense +0.8 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Atlético Mineiro had more than twice the shots on target

Atlético Mineiro

Chapecoense

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

66%

Possession

34%

The match between Atlético Mineiro and Chapecoense ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Atlético Mineiro win at 66% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Flamengo – Atlético Mineiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).

Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro to win

Wrong

Our model 66%Bookmakers 71%

Our track record

In 616 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 70.5% of the time (bookmakers said 70.8%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong

Our model 55%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Over 2.5 goals.

Our model 51%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 2,855 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 44.2% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 45.2% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 73%Bookmakers 67%

Our track record

In 4,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 70–75% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 72.3% of the time (bookmakers said 71.6%).

First Half Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Atlético Mineiro ahead at half-time.

Our model 44%Bookmakers 37%

Our track record

In 2,232 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 36.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 37.3% than to our 40–45%.

Atlético Mineiro Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Mineiro 2+ goals

Wrong

Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.8% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Chapecoense Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Chapecoense 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 86%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.2% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Atlético Mineiro1

Chapecoense1

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Atlético Mineiro1

Chapecoense1

Winner

1 66%

BTTS*

No 55%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 51%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 63%

Full Time

166%

X22%

212%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	27%	73%	51%	49%	63%	37%	83%	17%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	27%	73%	51%	49%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	63%	37%	83%	17%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	15%	85%	43%	57%	71%	29%	88%	12%
	55%	45%	86%	14%	97%	3%	99%	1%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	15%	85%	43%	57%
	55%	45%	86%	14%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	71%	29%	88%	12%
	97%	3%	99%	1%

1st Half

143%

X44%

213%

1st Score

168%

X8%

224%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

38%

X-1

24%

X-X

14%

2-2

X-2

1-X

2-X

2-1

1-2

Correct Score

1-0

14.9%

2-0

12.9%

2-1

10.5%

1-1

9.8%

3-0

7.8%

0-0

7.7%

3-1

5.8%

0-1

4.5%

2-2

3.5%

1-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Atlético Mineiro vs Chapecoense — Recent Form

Atlético Mineiro have won 3, drawn 2 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 5th in the table. Chapecoense have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 20th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Atlético Mineiro

Chapecoense

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Chapecoense

3/5

Atlético Mineiro

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Chapecoense

3/5

Atlético Mineiro

3/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Chapecoense

2/5

Atlético Mineiro

2/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Chapecoense

3/5

Atlético Mineiro

4/5

First Half Result

Chapecoense

2/5

Atlético Mineiro

2/5

Correct Score

Chapecoense

1/5

Atlético Mineiro

2/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Flamengo – Atlético Mineiro prediction & betting tips (Oct 26, 2026).