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Athletico PR vs Palmeiras

Athletico PR vs Palmeiras 0-2 Score & Prediction Review

Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 31)

Smash-and-grab

Palmeiras won with less than half the chances

Athletico PR

0–2

Palmeiras

2.1Chances (xG)0.6

On these chances Athletico PR would usually take 2.3 points and Palmeiras 0.5; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Palmeiras.

Athletico PR −2.3 pts vs chancesPalmeiras +2.5 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Athletico PR vs Palmeiras stats: how the match was played

Serie A

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Athletico PR had more than twice the shots on target

Athletico PR

Palmeiras

Shots on target

Big chances

Corners

Yellow cards

Red cards

63%

Possession

37%

The match between Athletico PR and Palmeiras ended 0-2. Our AI model correctly predicted an Palmeiras win with 37% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).

Athletico PR vs Palmeiras — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Serie A

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months

Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palmeiras to win

Correct

Our model 37%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 2,086 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 43.7% of the time (bookmakers said 43.9%).

Both Teams to Score →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct

The bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Yes, both score.

Our model 52%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 3,101 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 46.5% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 46.4% than to our 50–55%.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct

Our model 58%Bookmakers 51%

Our track record

In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct

Our model 79%Bookmakers 73%

Our track record

In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong

Our model 46%Bookmakers 43%

Our track record

In 4,281 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Athletico PR Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Athletico PR 0–1 goals

Correct

Our model 70%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,667 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Palmeiras Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Palmeiras 0–1 goals

Wrong

Our model 67%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,290 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.2% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Athletico PR vs Palmeiras 0-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Athletico PR vs Palmeiras. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Athletico PR0

Palmeiras2

Winner

12 70%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

· FT

Serie A - Brazil

Athletico PR0

Palmeiras2

Winner

12 70%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-1 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 69%

Full Time

133%

X30%

237%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%	69%	31%	89%	11%

Goals Over/Under

	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5
FT	32%	68%	58%	42%

	<3.5	>3.5	<4.5	>4.5
FT	69%	31%	89%	11%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	34%	66%	70%	30%	90%	10%	97%	3%
	31%	69%	67%	33%	88%	12%	97%	3%

Team Goals Over/Under

	<0.5	>0.5	<1.5	>1.5
	34%	66%	70%	30%
	31%	69%	67%	33%

	<2.5	>2.5	<3.5	>3.5
	90%	10%	97%	3%
	88%	12%	97%	3%

1st Half

129%

X46%

225%

1st Score

146%

X10%

244%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

20%

1-1

19%

2-2

17%

X-1

13%

X-2

13%

1-X

2-X

1-2

2-1

Correct Score

1-1

14.1%

0-1

11.5%

1-0

10.5%

0-0

10.2%

1-2

7.8%

2-1

7.5%

0-2

6.5%

2-0

5.6%

2-2

5.0%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

Athletico PR vs Palmeiras — Recent Form

Palmeiras have won 4, drawn 1 and lost 0 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 2nd in the table. Athletico PR have won 2, drawn 2 and lost 1 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 4th in the table.

Last 5 matches

Palmeiras

Athletico PR

Our prediction record

Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.

Full-Time Result

Palmeiras

4/5

Athletico PR

3/5

Both Teams to Score

Palmeiras

2/5

Athletico PR

4/5

Over/Under 2.5 Goals

Palmeiras

1/5

Athletico PR

1/5

Over/Under 3.5 Goals

Palmeiras

4/5

Athletico PR

3/5

First Half Result

Palmeiras

4/5

Athletico PR

3/5

Correct Score

Palmeiras

1/5

Athletico PR

1/5

Last 5 Matchescorrect predictionwrong prediction

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Santos – Palmeiras prediction & betting tips (Oct 28, 2026).