Corinthians vs Vitória 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Serie A - Season 2026 (Round 31)
Corinthians drew despite more chances
Corinthians1–1
VitóriaOn these chances Corinthians would usually take 2.4 points and Vitória 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Corinthians.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Corinthians vs Vitória stats: how the match was played
Serie A
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Level on shots on target
Corinthians
Vitória
6
Shots on target
5
2
Big chances
2
9
Corners
1
1
Yellow cards
1
67%
Possession
33%
Corinthians vs Vitória — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Serie A
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Corinthians to win
WrongOur track record
In 1,805 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.4% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 6,482 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 5,306 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.5% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 3,642 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 76.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
WrongThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Corinthians ahead at half-time.
Our track record
In 549 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 34.8% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 38.8% than to our 45–50%.
Our model’s pick
Corinthians 0–1 goals
CorrectThe bookmakers’ favourite was wrong: Corinthians 2+ goals.
Our track record
In 1,869 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 41.9% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 43.7% than to our 50–55%.
Our model’s pick
Vitória 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,483 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.0% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Corinthians vs Vitória 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Corinthians vs Vitória. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Corinthians1
Vitória1Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Corinthians1Vitória1Winner
1 55%
BTTS*
No 54%
Correct Score
1-0 14%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 55%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 68%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 30% | 70% | 55% | 45% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 68% | 32% | 88% | 12% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20% | 80% | 53% | 47% |
| 47% | 53% | 81% | 19% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 79% | 21% | 92% | 8% |
| 95% | 5% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
31%
X-1
22%
X-X
17%
2-2
9%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
4%
1-2
2%
2-1
2%
Correct Score
1-0
14.0%
1-1
11.9%
2-0
11.1%
2-1
10.2%
0-0
8.7%
0-1
7.0%
3-0
5.8%
1-2
5.4%
3-1
4.7%
2-2
4.0%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score
Corinthians vs Vitória — Recent Form
Vitória have won 1, drawn 2 and lost 2 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 14th in the table. Corinthians have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 4 of their last 5 matches and currently sit 18th in the table.
Last 5 matches
VitóriaCorinthiansOur prediction record
Our last 5 predictions in each team’s matches, by market.
Full-Time Result
CorinthiansVitóriaBoth Teams to Score
CorinthiansVitóriaOver/Under 2.5 Goals
CorinthiansVitóriaOver/Under 3.5 Goals
CorinthiansVitóriaFirst Half Result
CorinthiansVitóriaCorrect Score
CorinthiansVitória