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  4. Barracas Central vs Lanús

Barracas Central vs Lanús 3-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2024 (Round 27)

Fair result
Barracas CentralBarracas Central

3–3

LanúsLanús
1.5Chances (xG)1.1

On these chances Barracas Central would usually take 1.7 points and Lanús 1.1; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Lanús.

Barracas Central −0.7 pts vs chancesLanús −0.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Barracas Central vs Lanús stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Barracas Central had clearly more shots on target

Barracas Central

Lanús

7

Shots on target

4

3

Big chances

3

1

Corners

4

3

Yellow cards

2

32%

Possession

68%

The match between Barracas Central and Lanús ended 3-3. Our AI model predicted an Lanús win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – Barracas Central prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

Barracas Central vs Lanús — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lanús to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 3,518 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.6% of the time (bookmakers said 50.6%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 60%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 2,491 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.6% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 1,165 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 85%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.9% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 50%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 1,258 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 53.9% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Barracas Central Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Barracas Central 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 83%Bookmakers 87%

Our track record

In 391 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 79.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.3%).

Lanús Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lanús 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 2,659 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.4% of the time (bookmakers said 63.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Barracas Central vs Lanús 3-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Barracas Central vs Lanús. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Barracas CentralBarracas Central3
LanúsLanús3

Winner

X2 77%

BTTS*

No 60%

Correct Score

0-1 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

Full Time

123%
X29%
248%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT40%60%66%34%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT75%25%93%7%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Barracas Central48%52%83%17%
Lanús29%71%64%36%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Barracas Central96%4%99%1%
Lanús86%14%96%4%

1st Half

117%
X50%
233%

1st Score

130%
X13%
257%

Half Time/Full Time

2-2

29%

X-X

20%

X-2

18%

1-1

12%

X-1

9%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

0-1

16.2%

0-0

13.2%

1-1

12.6%

1-0

10.3%

0-2

9.8%

1-2

8.6%

2-1

5.3%

0-3

4.1%

2-0

3.7%

1-3

3.6%

2-2

3.2%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Belgrano – Barracas Central prediction & betting tips (Nov 1, 2026).

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