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  4. Rosario Central vs Belgrano

Rosario Central vs Belgrano 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2024 (Round 27)

Fair result
Rosario CentralRosario Central

2–1

BelgranoBelgrano
1.5Chances (xG)1.5

On these chances Rosario Central would usually take 1.4 points and Belgrano 1.4; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Rosario Central.

Rosario Central +1.6 pts vs chancesBelgrano −1.4 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Rosario Central vs Belgrano stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Rosario Central

Belgrano

4

Shots on target

4

4

Big chances

0

5

Corners

11

2

Yellow cards

4

50%

Possession

50%

The match between Rosario Central and Belgrano ended 2-1. Our AI model correctly predicted a Rosario Central win with 40% confidence before kick-off. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Full-Time Result & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sarmiento – Rosario Central prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

Rosario Central vs Belgrano — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rosario Central to win

Correct
Our model 40%Bookmakers 44%

Our track record

In 3,622 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 40–45% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.3% of the time (bookmakers said 47.0%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 59%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 5,735 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.9% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 67%Bookmakers 61%

Our track record

In 1,165 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 86%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 398 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.9% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 1,258 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 53.9% of the time (bookmakers said 51.7%).

Rosario Central Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Rosario Central 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 70%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,676 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 69.1% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Belgrano Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Belgrano 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 75%

Our track record

In 2,587 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 74.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Rosario Central vs Belgrano 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Rosario Central vs Belgrano. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Rosario CentralRosario Central2
BelgranoBelgrano1

Winner

1X 71%

BTTS*

No 59%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

Full Time

140%
X31%
229%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT40%60%67%33%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT75%25%93%7%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Rosario Central34%66%70%30%
Belgrano42%58%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Rosario Central90%10%98%2%
Belgrano94%6%99%1%

1st Half

127%
X53%
221%

1st Score

148%
X13%
238%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

22%

X-X

22%

X-1

17%

2-2

15%

X-2

13%

2-X

5%

1-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

14.8%

1-1

13.4%

0-0

13.3%

0-1

11.9%

2-0

8.0%

2-1

7.5%

1-2

6.0%

0-2

5.6%

2-2

3.6%

3-0

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Sarmiento – Rosario Central prediction & betting tips (Oct 31, 2026).

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