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Banfield vs Sarmiento 3-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 2)

Fair result
BanfieldBanfield

3–2

SarmientoSarmiento
2.8Chances (xG)1.3

On these chances Banfield would usually take 2.2 points and Sarmiento 0.6; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Banfield.

Banfield +0.8 pts vs chancesSarmiento −0.6 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Banfield vs Sarmiento stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Banfield had clearly more shots on target

Banfield

Sarmiento

8

Shots on target

5

3

Big chances

4

4

Corners

4

0

Yellow cards

1

38%

Possession

62%

The match between Banfield and Sarmiento ended 3-2. Our AI model correctly predicted a Banfield win with 55% confidence before kick-off. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Full-Time Result — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Banfield vs Sarmiento — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Banfield to win

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 42%

Our track record

In 2,470 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.7% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 5,693 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.7% of the time (bookmakers said 57.8%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 61%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,079 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 81%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,709 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 49%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,234 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.0% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Banfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Banfield 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 84%Bookmakers 80%

Our track record

In 1,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.9% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Banfield vs Sarmiento 3-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Banfield vs Sarmiento. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
BanfieldBanfield3
SarmientoSarmiento2

Winner

1 55%

BTTS*

No 58%

Correct Score

1-0 16%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 61%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 71%

Full Time

155%
X27%
218%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT35%65%61%39%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT71%29%90%10%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Banfield23%77%56%44%
Sarmiento50%50%84%16%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Banfield82%18%94%6%
Sarmiento96%4%99%1%

1st Half

136%
X49%
215%

1st Score

158%
X11%
231%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

29%

X-X

22%

X-1

21%

2-2

9%

X-2

8%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

3%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

16.2%

1-1

12.3%

2-0

11.5%

0-0

10.5%

2-1

9.2%

0-1

7.8%

3-0

5.3%

3-1

4.3%

1-2

4.3%

2-2

3.5%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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