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  4. Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes 1-0 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 2)

Fair result
Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors

1–0

EstudiantesEstudiantes
0.7Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Boca Juniors would usually take 1.0 points and Estudiantes 1.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Boca Juniors.

Boca Juniors +2.0 pts vs chancesEstudiantes −1.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Estudiantes had more than twice the shots on target

Boca Juniors

Estudiantes

2

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

1

5

Corners

2

1

Yellow cards

3

62%

Possession

39%

The match between Boca Juniors and Estudiantes ended 1-0. Our AI model correctly predicted a Boca Juniors win with 51% confidence before kick-off. A strong performance overall — our model hit all 4 key markets for this fixture, correctly calling Full-Time Result, Both Teams To Score, Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes – San Lorenzo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors to win

Correct
Our model 51%Bookmakers 53%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Correct
Our model 61%Bookmakers 60%

Our track record

In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 67%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.7% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 46%Bookmakers 48%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Boca Juniors Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Boca Juniors 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 62%Bookmakers 63%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Estudiantes Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Estudiantes 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 85%Bookmakers 83%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes 1-0 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boca Juniors vs Estudiantes. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Boca JuniorsBoca Juniors1
EstudiantesEstudiantes0

Winner

1 51%

BTTS*

No 61%

Correct Score

1-0 18%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 67%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 75%

Full Time

151%
X29%
219%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT39%61%67%33%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT75%25%93%7%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Boca Juniors26%74%62%38%
Estudiantes50%50%85%15%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Boca Juniors86%14%96%4%
Estudiantes97%3%99%1%

1st Half

139%
X46%
215%

1st Score

159%
X13%
228%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-X

21%

X-1

19%

2-2

8%

X-2

7%

1-X

5%

2-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

17.5%

1-1

13.2%

0-0

12.7%

2-0

11.1%

0-1

8.9%

2-1

8.8%

3-0

4.5%

1-2

4.4%

3-1

3.5%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Estudiantes – San Lorenzo prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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