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Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento 1-2 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 4)

Fair result
Atlético TucumánAtlético Tucumán

1–2

SarmientoSarmiento
1.3Chances (xG)1.9

On these chances Atlético Tucumán would usually take 1.1 points and Sarmiento 1.7; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Atlético Tucumán.

Atlético Tucumán −1.1 pts vs chancesSarmiento +1.3 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Level on shots on target

Atlético Tucumán

Sarmiento

6

Shots on target

5

2

Big chances

2

13

Corners

4

0

Yellow cards

2

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Atlético Tucumán and Sarmiento ended 1-2. Our AI model predicted a Atlético Tucumán win at 58% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.

Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Tucumán to win

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 52%

Our track record

In 1,798 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.3% of the time (bookmakers said 61.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 65%Bookmakers 62%

Our track record

In 2,489 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.7% of the time (bookmakers said 61.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 66%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 1,171 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 67.9% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 84%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,679 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.9% of the time (bookmakers said 81.2%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Correct
Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 4,285 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 48.2% of the time (bookmakers said 47.2%).

Atlético Tucumán Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Atlético Tucumán 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 3,499 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.9% of the time (bookmakers said 61.2%).

Sarmiento Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Sarmiento 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 88%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 592 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 85.1% of the time (bookmakers said 85.0%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento 1-2 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Atlético Tucumán vs Sarmiento. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Atlético TucumánAtlético Tucumán1
SarmientoSarmiento2

Winner

1 58%

BTTS*

No 65%

Correct Score

1-0 19%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 66%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 74%

Full Time

158%
X27%
215%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT39%61%66%34%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT74%26%91%9%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Atlético Tucumán23%77%57%43%
Sarmiento57%43%88%12%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Atlético Tucumán82%18%94%6%
Sarmiento98%2%100%0%

1st Half

139%
X48%
213%

1st Score

161%
X13%
226%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

32%

X-1

21%

X-X

20%

2-2

8%

X-2

7%

1-X

4%

2-X

4%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

19.0%

2-0

13.2%

0-0

12.8%

1-1

11.3%

2-1

8.6%

0-1

7.2%

3-0

6.4%

3-1

3.9%

1-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

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