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Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 Score & Prediction Review
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 4)
Boca Juniors drew despite more chances
Boca Juniors1–1
Vélez SarsfieldOn these chances Boca Juniors would usually take 2.5 points and Vélez Sarsfield 0.4; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Boca Juniors.
Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model
How it works
Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.
Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.
Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.
How we measure →Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield stats: how the match was played
Liga Profesional de Fútbol
Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.
Boca Juniors had more than twice the shots on target
Boca Juniors
Vélez Sarsfield
8
Shots on target
4
5
Big chances
1
5
Corners
4
2
Yellow cards
4
58%
Possession
42%
Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield — Our Model vs the Bookmakers
Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol
How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.
How to read it
Our model’s pick
Boca Juniors to win
WrongOur track record
In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).
Our model’s pick
No, not both
WrongOur track record
In 2,480 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 62.5% of the time (bookmakers said 61.6%).
Our model’s pick
Under 2.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,157 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.0% of the time (bookmakers said 66.8%).
Our model’s pick
Under 3.5 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 399 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 85–90% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 87.7% of the time (bookmakers said 86.2%).
Our model’s pick
Draw at half-time
CorrectOur track record
In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).
Our model’s pick
Boca Juniors 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 2,712 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).
Our model’s pick
Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals
CorrectOur track record
In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).
Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.
Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed
The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Boca Juniors vs Vélez Sarsfield. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.
Boca Juniors1
Vélez Sarsfield1Winner
1X 78%
BTTS*
No 61%
Correct Score
1-0 17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Boca Juniors1Vélez Sarsfield1Winner
1X 78%
BTTS*
No 61%
Correct Score
1-0 17%
Over/Under 2.5 goals
under 68%
Over/Under 3.5 goals
under 76%
Full Time
Goals Over/Under
| <1.5 | >1.5 | <2.5 | >2.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 41% | 59% | 68% | 32% |
| <3.5 | >3.5 | <4.5 | >4.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FT | 76% | 24% | 93% | 7% |
Team Goals Over/Under
| <0.5 | >0.5 | <1.5 | >1.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29% | 71% | 65% | 35% |
| 49% | 51% | 84% | 16% |
| <2.5 | >2.5 | <3.5 | >3.5 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88% | 12% | 96% | 4% |
| 97% | 3% | 99% | 1% |
1st Half
1st Score
Half Time/Full Time
1-1
29%
X-X
21%
X-1
19%
2-2
9%
X-2
8%
1-X
5%
2-X
5%
2-1
2%
1-2
1%
Correct Score
1-0
17.3%
0-0
13.5%
1-1
13.5%
2-0
10.2%
0-1
9.9%
2-1
8.5%
1-2
4.8%
3-0
3.9%
0-2
3.8%
3-1
3.2%
*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)
*BTTS - Both teams to score