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Lanús vs Independiente 1-3 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Fair result
LanúsLanús

1–3

IndependienteIndependiente
1.9Chances (xG)1.2

On these chances Lanús would usually take 1.8 points and Independiente 0.9; they took 0 and 3. Bookmakers' favourite: Lanús.

Lanús −1.8 pts vs chancesIndependiente +2.1 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Lanús vs Independiente stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Lanús had clearly more shots on target

Lanús

Independiente

6

Shots on target

4

2

Big chances

2

10

Corners

5

2

Yellow cards

3

1

Red cards

0

51%

Possession

49%

The match between Lanús and Independiente ended 1-3. Our AI model predicted a Lanús win at 48% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. None of the key markets landed for this fixture — these matches help refine the model and improve future accuracy.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Club – Independiente prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

Lanús vs Independiente — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lanús to win

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 3,513 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 49.3% of the time (bookmakers said 50.5%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 57%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 5,732 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 56.8% of the time (bookmakers said 57.7%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,115 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 61.5% of the time (bookmakers said 62.6%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 83%Bookmakers 85%

Our track record

In 1,741 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 80.4% of the time (bookmakers said 81.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 49%

Our track record

In 1,249 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.1% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Lanús Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Lanús 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 64%Bookmakers 66%

Our track record

In 3,463 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 60–65% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 63.8% of the time (bookmakers said 63.9%).

Independiente Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Independiente 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 81%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 1,503 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 80–85% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 78.8% of the time (bookmakers said 80.6%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Lanús vs Independiente 1-3 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Lanús vs Independiente. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
LanúsLanús1
IndependienteIndependiente3

Winner

1X 75%

BTTS*

No 57%

Correct Score

1-0 15%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 64%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 73%

Full Time

148%
X28%
225%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT37%63%64%36%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT73%27%92%8%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Lanús28%72%64%36%
Independiente45%55%81%19%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Lanús86%14%96%4%
Independiente95%5%99%1%

1st Half

130%
X51%
218%

1st Score

151%
X11%
237%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

26%

X-X

20%

X-1

18%

X-2

11%

2-2

11%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

2%

1-2

1%

Correct Score

1-0

15.4%

1-1

13.3%

0-0

11.4%

0-1

10.1%

2-0

9.9%

2-1

8.6%

1-2

5.5%

0-2

4.2%

3-0

3.9%

3-1

3.7%

2-2

3.1%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Racing Club – Independiente prediction & betting tips (Oct 18, 2026).

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