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Vélez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia 1-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 5)

Robbed

Defensa y Justicia drew despite more chances

Vélez SarsfieldVélez Sarsfield

1–1

Defensa y JusticiaDefensa y Justicia
1.0Chances (xG)1.8

On these chances Vélez Sarsfield would usually take 0.8 points and Defensa y Justicia 2.0; they took 1 and 1. Bookmakers' favourite: Vélez Sarsfield.

Vélez Sarsfield +0.2 pts vs chancesDefensa y Justicia −1.0 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Vélez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Defensa y Justicia had more than twice the shots on target

Vélez Sarsfield

Defensa y Justicia

3

Shots on target

6

1

Big chances

1

6

Corners

9

4

Yellow cards

3

54%

Possession

46%

The match between Vélez Sarsfield and Defensa y Justicia ended 1-1. Our AI model predicted a Vélez Sarsfield win at 53% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Overall a solid read on this match, with 2 out of 4 key markets predicted correctly, including Over/Under 2.5 Goals & Over/Under 3.5 Goals.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Talleres Córdoba – Defensa y Justicia prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

Vélez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vélez Sarsfield to win

Wrong
Our model 53%Bookmakers 47%

Our track record

In 2,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.6% of the time (bookmakers said 55.1%).

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 54%

Our track record

In 6,501 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Correct
Our model 55%Bookmakers 59%

Our track record

In 5,191 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 57.0% of the time (bookmakers said 56.4%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 77%Bookmakers 79%

Our track record

In 3,681 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 48%Bookmakers 45%

Our track record

In 4,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 45–50% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 47.8% of the time (bookmakers said 47.3%).

Vélez Sarsfield Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Vélez Sarsfield 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 54%Bookmakers 56%

Our track record

In 2,827 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 59.4% of the time (bookmakers said 58.6%).

Defensa y Justicia Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Defensa y Justicia 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 79%Bookmakers 81%

Our track record

In 2,600 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.2% of the time (bookmakers said 76.4%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Vélez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia 1-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Vélez Sarsfield vs Defensa y Justicia. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Vélez SarsfieldVélez Sarsfield1
Defensa y JusticiaDefensa y Justicia1

Winner

1 53%

BTTS*

No 52%

Correct Score

1-0 14%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 55%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 67%

Full Time

153%
X26%
222%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT29%71%55%45%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT67%33%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Vélez Sarsfield21%79%54%46%
Defensa y Justicia44%56%78%22%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Vélez Sarsfield80%20%93%7%
Defensa y Justicia94%6%99%1%

1st Half

134%
X48%
217%

1st Score

157%
X8%
234%

Half Time/Full Time

1-1

28%

X-1

20%

X-X

19%

2-2

11%

X-2

9%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

2-1

3%

1-2

2%

Correct Score

1-0

13.5%

1-1

12.1%

2-1

10.2%

2-0

10.0%

0-0

8.4%

0-1

7.3%

1-2

5.6%

3-0

5.4%

3-1

4.5%

2-2

4.3%

0-2

3.3%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Talleres Córdoba – Defensa y Justicia prediction & betting tips (Oct 24, 2026).

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