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  4. Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre

Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre 2-1 Score & Prediction Review

Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Season 2026 (Round 8)

Fair result
Gimnasia La PlataGimnasia La Plata

2–1

TigreTigre
2.2Chances (xG)1.0

On these chances Gimnasia La Plata would usually take 2.1 points and Tigre 0.7; they took 3 and 0. Bookmakers' favourite: Gimnasia La Plata.

Gimnasia La Plata +0.9 pts vs chancesTigre −0.7 pts vs chances

Calculated by MyGameOdds · xG: our own model

How it works

Chances (xG): every shot gets a value for how likely it was to go in, and we add them up (our own model). Points their chances were worth: how many points teams usually get from chances like these.

Smash-and-grab: the winner created at least 0.8 xG less than the loser. Robbed: a draw where one side created at least 0.8 xG more. Anything else is a fair result. No verdict after extra time or when there's no xG.

Can you trust it? In these games, SportMonks' own xG agreed on who created more in 95% of the wins and 98% of the draws, and Flashscore agreed in 16 of the 20 games we checked by hand.

How we measure →

Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre stats: how the match was played

Liga Profesional de Fútbol

Whether the result matched the chances each side created, measured with our own xG.

Gimnasia La Plata had more than twice the shots on target

Gimnasia La Plata

Tigre

7

Shots on target

3

3

Big chances

1

5

Corners

1

3

Yellow cards

4

47%

Possession

53%

The match between Gimnasia La Plata and Tigre ended 2-1. Our AI model predicted an Tigre win at 36% confidence — the final result went a different way, but individual market predictions still offer useful insight. Our model got 1 out of 4 markets right, correctly predicting Over/Under 3.5 Goals — a reminder that football can be unpredictable, but the data continues to sharpen future predictions.
This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre — Our Model vs the Bookmakers

Market check · Liga Profesional de Fútbol

How our model’s pick did in each market, next to the bookmakers’ last odds before kick-off (margin removed): what was correct, what was wrong, and how often our predictions like this one came true over the last 12 months.

How to read it

our model’s probabilitybookmakers’ probabilityAgreesDisagreesour model’s pick is / is not the bookmakers’ favouriteTrack record: finished matches from the last 12 months
Full-Time Result →Disagrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre to win

Wrong

The bookmakers’ favourite was correct: Gimnasia La Plata to win.

Our model 36%Bookmakers 27%

Our track record

In 1,527 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 35–40% chance but the bookmakers favoured a different outcome, it came true 28.7% of the time: closer to the bookmakers’ 29.5% than to our 35–40%.

Both Teams to Score →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

No, not both

Wrong
Our model 51%Bookmakers 58%

Our track record

In 6,495 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 55.3% of the time (bookmakers said 55.0%).

Over/Under 2.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 2.5 goals

Wrong
Our model 58%Bookmakers 68%

Our track record

In 5,328 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 55–60% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 58.4% of the time (bookmakers said 59.1%).

Over/Under 3.5 Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Under 3.5 goals

Correct
Our model 78%Bookmakers 86%

Our track record

In 3,678 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 75–80% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 75.9% of the time (bookmakers said 76.3%).

First Half Result →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Draw at half-time

Wrong
Our model 52%Bookmakers 50%

Our track record

In 1,247 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 50–55% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 54.0% of the time (bookmakers said 51.8%).

Gimnasia La Plata Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Gimnasia La Plata 0–1 goals

Wrong
Our model 68%Bookmakers 72%

Our track record

In 2,708 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.9% of the time (bookmakers said 67.6%).

Tigre Goals →Agrees with bookmakers

Our model’s pick

Tigre 0–1 goals

Correct
Our model 68%Bookmakers 77%

Our track record

In 3,276 matches over the last 12 months where our model gave the same pick a 65–70% chance and the bookmakers agreed, it came true 68.3% of the time (bookmakers said 67.7%).

Odds: the last ones before kick-off. Picks are marked on the result after 90 minutes. The track record uses closing odds.

Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre 2-1 — How Our Predictions Performed

The prediction cards below show the pre-match probabilities our AI model generated for Gimnasia La Plata vs Tigre. Correct predictions are highlighted in green, so you can quickly see where the model read this match well.

· FT
Liga Profesional de Fútbol - Argentina
Gimnasia La PlataGimnasia La Plata2
TigreTigre1

Winner

12 71%

BTTS*

No 51%

Correct Score

1-1 13%

Over/Under 2.5 goals

under 58%

Over/Under 3.5 goals

under 68%

Full Time

135%
X29%
236%

Goals Over/Under

<1.5>1.5<2.5>2.5
FT32%68%58%42%
<3.5>3.5<4.5>4.5
FT68%32%88%12%

Team Goals Over/Under

<0.5>0.5<1.5>1.5
Gimnasia La Plata34%66%68%32%
Tigre33%67%67%33%
<2.5>2.5<3.5>3.5
Gimnasia La Plata88%12%96%4%
Tigre89%11%97%3%

1st Half

123%
X52%
225%

1st Score

143%
X11%
246%

Half Time/Full Time

X-X

23%

2-2

19%

1-1

15%

X-2

15%

X-1

13%

1-X

5%

2-X

5%

1-2

2%

2-1

2%

Correct Score

1-1

12.8%

0-1

10.9%

0-0

10.9%

1-0

10.6%

1-2

7.8%

2-1

7.6%

0-2

6.6%

2-0

5.8%

2-2

4.6%

1-3

3.0%

*Probability of each predicted outcome is expressed in percentage (%)

*BTTS - Both teams to score

This match is finished — the model has already priced the next one: Gimnasia La Plata – Sarmiento prediction & betting tips (Oct 23, 2026).

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